6:24 AM
Jobless claims near three-month low
Addison Ray
WASHINGTON | Thu Oct 7, 2010 8:49am EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, touching their lowest level in nearly three months, according to a government report on Thursday that pointed to some stability in the troubled labor market.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 445,000, the lowest since the July 10 week, the Labor Department said.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims edging up to 455,000 from the previously reported 453,000. The government revised the prior week's figure up to 456,000.
Although the data has little bearing on September's employment report due on Friday as it falls outside the survey period, it does little to change perceptions the Federal Reserve will roll out a new asset purchasing program next month to keep interest rates low.
Non-farm payrolls were likely unchanged last month as more temporary census jobs ended and broke state and local governments laid off workers, even as private hiring picked up, according to a Reuters survey.
A Labor Department official said only one state had been estimated in last week's claims data. The four-week average of new jobless claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market trends, to fell 3,000 to 455,750, the lowest level since the July 24 week.
The second straight week of declines in new applications for unemployment benefits pushed them further away from a nine-month high of 504,000 touched in mid-August. Claims are now in the upper end of the 400,000-450,000 range that analysts say is normally associated with labor market stability.
The number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 48,000 to 4.46 million in the week ended September 25, the lowest since June 26, from an upwardly revised 4.51 million the prior week.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast so-called continuing claims dipping to 4.45 million from a previously reported 4.46 million.
The insured unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of the insured labor force that is jobless, slipped to 3.5 percent during that period from 3.6 percent the prior week.
The number of people on emergency benefits increased 157,735 to 4.1 million in the week ended September 18.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
6:04 AM
Late back-to-school shopping lifts retail sales
Addison Ray
By Phil Wahba
NEW YORK | Thu Oct 7, 2010 8:22am EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Retailers catering to teens saw some of the strongest same-store sales in September, with a late start to back-to-school sales helping the store chains beat Wall Street forecasts.
Apparel chains appealing to young shoppers such as The Buckle, Wet Seal Hot Topic and Zumiez all reported better-than-expected sales at stores open at least a year on Thursday.
They were among the earliest results reported for the retail industry, with sales for department stores, discount chains and specialty apparel due to be released later in the morning.
Overall, Wall Street has forecast a same-store sales rise of 2.1 percent for the retail sector, according to Thomson Reuters data.
"It was a late back-to-school season that started slowly while shoppers waited for discounts," said David Bassuk, managing director at AlixPartners' global retail practice. "And it looks like they'll do the same for the holidays."
Victoria's Secret parent Limited Brands, posted a same-store sales rise of 12 percent, beating Wall Street forecasts of a 4.1 percent rise. It also forecast October same-store sales would rise in the mid-single digit percentages, and its shares jumped 3.5 percent in premarket training.
Other retailers set to report September sales results include Target Corp, Macy's Inc and Saks Inc.
Last week, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers showed consumer sentiment remained at its weakest level in more than a year due to economic worries among upper-income families.
U.S. private employers unexpectedly shed jobs in September, adding to consumer anxiety about high unemployment. Shoppers say they are still buying with caution.
"I hit the sale rack first," said Fayola Romano, a medical receptionist from Brooklyn who was shopping on Wednesday at a Macy's store in Manhattan.
"I think I'm going to wait until the season gets closer, and then figure out if I am going to shop as much," she said of her holiday spending plans.
(Reporting by Phil Wahba; Editing by Michele Gershberg, Dave Zimmerman)
5:02 AM
PepsiCo trims top end of forecast
Addison Ray
DETROIT | Thu Oct 7, 2010 7:37am EDT
DETROIT (Reuters) - PepsiCo Inc (PEP.N) trimmed the top end of its full-year earnings forecast and reported a quarterly profit on Thursday that met analysts' expectations.
The soft drink and snack maker said net income was $1.92 billion, or $1.19 a share, in the third quarter, compared to $1.72 billion, or $1.09 a share, a year earlier.
Excluding items, earnings were $1.22 a share, matching what analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S had expected.
Revenue rose 40 percent to $15.5 billion, helped by the acquisition of its two largest bottlers.
The $7.8 billion deal closed in late February with the aim of cutting costs and streamlining the distribution of Pepsi drinks throughout North America where performance has been sluggish for some time.
Coca-Cola Co (KO.N) closed on a similar deal on Sunday.
The company trimmed the high end of its full-year outlook, saying it expects earnings per share, excluding currency fluctuations and one-time items, to rise 11 percent to 12 percent. It had previously forecast a range of 11 percent to 13 percent.
(Reporting by Ben Klayman in Detroit; Editing by Derek Caney)
2:59 AM
Stock index futures dip
Addison Ray
PARIS | Thu Oct 7, 2010 5:11am EDT
PARIS (Reuters) - Stock index futures pointed to a flat to slightly lower open on Wall Street on Thursday, with futures for the S&P 500 down 0.01 percent, Dow Jones futures down 0.2 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.02 percent at 0845 GMT (4:45 a.m. EDT).
Investors awaited results from Alcoa (AA.N), due to kickoff the third-quarter earnings season. The U.S. aluminum group was expected to post a modest third-quarter profit, but the main focus will be on the company's forecast to see if rising metal prices will send earnings surging in the final quarter.
Tech shares will again be in focus on Thursday after Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) posted disappointing earnings guidance, sparking slowdown concerns as prices of its key products slide, hitting shares and ending the technology group's run of record quarterly performances. The world's largest memory chipmaker, which has a tradition of beating even the most bullish estimates, faces a tough outlook as a fragile world economy has hit demand for TVs and computers.
Economic data on tap on Thursday includes weekly initial jobless claims and chain store sales for September.
On the earnings front, Micron Technology MU.N and PepsiCo (PEP.N) are among the companies expected to report.
After the bell on Wednesday, Himax Technologies Inc (HIMX.O), which makes chips for flat-panel displays, cut its third-quarter outlook to reflect order cutbacks in August and September.
Marriott International Inc (MAR.N), posted a profit that met Wall Street expectations, as corporate travel, the company's primary market, rose amid a broader business-led recovery.
The dollar fell broadly on Thursday, sliding to a 15-year low versus the Japanese yen and an all-time low against the Swiss franc on the prospect of more money-printing by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Gold prices rose to a record high above $1,360 an ounce on Thursday, extending earlier gains made on the back of a slide in the U.S. dollar and the potential for key Asian consumer Vietnam to resume bullion imports.
European stocks were down 0.2 percent in early trade on Thursday, as investors took a breather after a sharp 2-day rally while keenly awaiting policy decisions and comments on the economy from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.
Tech shares slumped on Wednesday, hit by worries about demand for semiconductors and data storage. The Nasdaq bore the brunt of the day's selling, led by data system services provider Citrix Systems (CTXS.O).
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI added 22.93 points, or 0.21 percent, to 10,967.65. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX inched down 0.78 of a point, or 0.07 percent, to 1,159.97. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 19.17 points, or 0.80 percent, to 2,380.66.
(Reporting by Blaise Robinson; Editing by Karen Foster)
2:00 AM
Job losses in 2009 likely bigger than thought
Addison Ray
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON | Thu Oct 7, 2010 4:21am EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The economy likely shed more jobs last year than previously thought, but analysts say the undercount by the government should prove less severe than it did during depths of the recession.
The Labor Department on Friday will give an initial estimate of how far off its count of employment may have been in the 12 months through March. The government admitted earlier this year that its count through March 2009 had overstated employment by 902,000 jobs.
Analysts expect a much smaller miscount this time, given the economy's growth spurt in the second half of last year.
The department blamed its 902,000 miss on faulty estimates of how many companies were created or destroyed, and it has not yet made any changes to the so-called birth-death model that produces this projection.
Once a year, it compares payroll data from its monthly surveys of employers with unemployment insurance tax reports, which give it a much more comprehensive view of actual employment. It uses these tax records to produce a "benchmark revision" to adjust for discrepancies.
"That adjustment is probably overstating the employment gains because we are in a very subdued recovery and the likelihood is that the birth-death factor is making the data look better than it otherwise would be," said Neil Dutta, an economist at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.
Tax records will probably show more businesses closed than initially estimated by the Labor Department, analysts said.
"It's not going to be that severe (as last time). A lot of it is sort of aligned with the performance in the broader economy," Dutta said, noting that the economy picked up in the second half of 2009 and entered this year strongly.
Other economists shared that view, while some said it was even possible that employment would be revised upward, citing other data, including a separate Labor Department survey of households, that had outperformed the monthly payrolls count.
They also said that while the department had not changed the birth-death model, it had incorporated new data from a period in which business start-ups were weak.
"Potentially, the model could have underpredicted for a time. With the incorporation of this new data you may see an upward revision," said Zach Pandl, U.S. economist at Nomura Securities International in New York.
"In our view, the risks are tilted toward an upward revision."
Whatever the outcome, it will probably have little implication for U.S. monetary policy, given that it is backward-looking and the economic recovery is very weak by historical standards.
But it could shed more light on the nature of the unemployment problem confronting the economy, with opinion increasingly divided on whether it is cyclical or structural.
Analysts will be looking at the sectors where job losses are concentrated. Steeper job losses than already reported in manufacturing and construction could strengthen the argument of a structural unemployment problem.