1:03 AM

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Stocks up as Fed easing view grows

Addison Ray

HONG KONG | Mon Oct 11, 2010 3:07am EDT

HONG KONG (Reuters) - The dollar slid to a 15-year low against the yen and Asian stocks rose on Monday as U.S. jobs data boosted the chances of easier U.S. monetary policy and IMF and G7 meetings produced little to ease global currency tension.

Major European stocks opened slightly higher, mirroring gains in Asia and on Wall Street with the FTSEEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 rising 0.2 percent in early trade to 1,072.60.

Finance leaders meeting over the weekend in Washington produced no quick fix for global economic imbalances, suggesting the cheap money trade of selling dollars to buy emerging market assets and commodities looks set to continue for now.

That was further spurred by weaker-than-expected jobs data in the United States on Friday that raised the chances the Federal Reserve would inject fresh funds into the economy as soon as its November 2-3 meeting.

"At the end of the day we are going to have QE2 one way or the other and we are going to have currency rebalancing. The question is how to play this now," said Geoff Howie, sales and markets strategist at MF Global in Singapore, referring to a second round of quantitative easing.

One group that stands to benefit is commodities that stand to gain on the back of rapid growth in developing Asian economies as well as persistent dollar weakness.

Metals rallied with London copper hitting a fresh 27-month peak while Shanghai zinc futures rose 5 percent to its upside limit of 18.875 yuan a metric ton.

The dollar weakened broadly against a basket of currencies .DXY and against the yen fell as far as 81.37 yen, its lowest level in 15 years. It later recovered to 81.99.

Although Japan is closed for a national holiday on Monday, the dollar's slide put markets on alert for potential intervention by the Bank of Japan, especially since the G7 and the IMF didn't produce any overt criticism of Tokyo's yen selling.

But with the yen already trading above the levels at which the BOJ intervened last month and the dollar's persistent weakness, any impact from intervention may be short-lived.

"Corporate Japan is just going to have to wake up and deal with a yen at or around 80. No amount of intervention is going to make much difference," said Howie.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan stock index .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.6 percent on expectations that a flood of investment funds into emerging markets would continue.

Hong Kong shares .HSI hit a more than 2-year peak, breaking out of a trading range that has held since November 2009 and leading a broad rally in Asian markets.

CORN RISES MOST SINCE 1972

Chicago corn jumped 8.5 percent for its biggest gain in 28 years, boosted by a U.S. government forecast that supplies in the world's top exporter would shrink to their lowest in 14 years.



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12:43 AM

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CNOOC tests U.S. with $1.1 billion Chesapeake bid

Addison Ray

HONG KONG/NEW YORK | Mon Oct 11, 2010 2:58am EDT

HONG KONG/NEW YORK (Reuters) - China's top offshore oil producer CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK) agreed to pay $1.1 billion for a stake in a U.S. shale oil and gas field, testing the market for the first time since its 2005 failed bid for Unocal.

CNOOC shares hit a three-year high on news of the deal with Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK.N), which could be the start of more outbound acquisitions as the Chinese company races to meet its aggressive production growth forecasts to feed the country's fast-growing economy, analysts and bankers said.

"We expect them to expand their footprint in the Canadian oil-sands and also in Brazil's deepwater. That's the last frontier where you can extract big oil volumes," said Gordon Kwan, head of Asian energy research for Mirae Asset Securities, adding that Nigeria and Angola could also be attractive.

Canadian oil firm Opti Canada Inc (OPC.TO) and its peer Nexen Inc (NXY.TO) have drawn interest from CNOOC, Asia- and Canada-based bankers have said in recent months.

CNOOC, along with its peer Sinopec Group, is also bidding for stakes in assets owned by Brazilian oil and gas start-up OGX SA (OGXP3.SA) in a potential $7 billion deal, sources with direct knowledge of the matter said in mid-September.

The 10 deals so far this year for China's oil and gas companies have been worth $18.6 billion, already eclipsing the $15.8 billion in deals for all of 2009, according to data from Thomson Reuters.

Most of the outbound acquisitions by China's oil firms have been in risky areas such as Africa, which Western rivals have avoided, or in locations with aging assets.

Now they are also eyeing the United States, which was once deemed off limits to the Chinese due to protectionist sentiment.

"Ninety-five percent of the world's E&P (exploration and production) companies are in North America," said an Asia-based investment banker who has advised Chinese oil firms on outbound deals. "If you have to move the reserve needle, you have to buy U.S. companies."

U.S. oil and gas companies are gradually warming to Chinese investment, partly because their companies are now short of cash, Kwan of Mirae Asset said.

In contrast, China's state oil giants including PetroChina (0857.HK) (601857.SS) (PTR.N) and Sinopec (0386.HK) (600028.SS) (SNP.N) have access to ample credit, giving them more firepower to execute deals.

NO REGULATORY HURDLES

The Chesapeake agreement shows that China is confident that the purchase of a 33 percent stake in the Eagle Ford acreage in South Texas will get the backing of U.S. regulators and politicians, who stepped in five years ago to block CNOOC's effort to buy U.S. oil company Unocal.

Outside the energy realm, political concerns have also surfaced from time to time involving efforts by Huawei HWT.UL, China's top telecoms equipment maker, to crack the U.S. market.

While U.S.-China tensions over the value of China's currency persist, ties between the two countries have grown since 2005, with China becoming a major global economic force.



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10:41 PM

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Microsoft readies new phone launch with AT&T

Addison Ray

NEW YORK | Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:23am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is set to unveil a new line of phones running its Windows software on Monday, as it attempts to pull back market share from Apple Inc's iPhone and Google Inc's Android system in the fast-growing market for multi-featured 'smartphones'.

The world's largest software company is hoping that the new phones, from handset makers such as Samsung, LG and HTC, will propel it back into the mobile market, which many see as the key to the future of computing.

The new phones, initially available on AT&T Inc's network, have already been shown off in prototype form, and are much closer in look and feel to Apple's iPhone, with colorful touch-screens and 'tiles' for easy access to e-mail, the web, music and other applications.

Some analysts say they represent Microsoft's last chance to catch up with rivals, which overtook them in the past few years. Handsets are not expected to appear in stores for a month, so their success may not be judged until the new year.

Microsoft has just a 5 percent share of the global smartphone market, according to research firm Gartner, compared with 9 percent a year ago. Google's Android system has a 17 percent market share, jumping from only 2 percent a year ago.

The market for multi-feature phones that allow users to e-mail, surf the web and play games, as well as have access to music and video is set to expand massively.

Gartner expects almost 270 million smartphones to be sold around the world this year, up 56 percent from last year.

In comparison, Gartner expects only a 19 percent increase in worldwide PC sales to 368 million units this year.

Microsoft, whose stock is trading at the same level it was eight years ago, has been struggling to find a footing in phones and mobile computing.

Its share price has fallen almost 20 percent so far this year.

Earlier this year, Microsoft yanked its Kin phone aimed at teenagers off the market less than three months after launch. There are still no signs of an imminent Windows-powered tablet device to counter Apple's hot-selling iPad.

TOUGH ENVIRONMENT

Microsoft's new phones will have a tough job elbowing aside a revamped set of rivals. In August, Research in Motion Ltd launched its new $200 BlackBerry Torch, with a touchscreen and slide-out keyboard.

In June, Apple launched its new $200 to $300 iPhone 4, which is selling well despite some antenna problems.

A slew of similarly priced Android phones, such as Motorola Inc's Droid X and Samsung's Galaxy series are also grabbing customers.



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12:53 PM

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Monetary policy's diminishing returns

Addison Ray

WASHINGTON | Sun Oct 10, 2010 3:00pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve runs the risk of diminishing returns from its next round of money printing to amplify the subdued economic recovery, but that won't stop it from trying.

Minutes due on Tuesday from the Fed's most recent policy-setting meeting may reflect some divisions among officials over whether to launch another round of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing.

Investors, however, assume the Fed will pull the trigger, likely at its next policy-setting meeting in November.

A Reuters poll of 16 primary dealers -- investment firms that deal directly with the Fed -- showed all expected the central bank to return to buying bonds. All but one predicted the announcement would come at the November 2-3 meeting.

The Fed cannot sit idly by with unemployment stuck near 10 percent and inflation below the central bank's perceived target, economists say. Statements from some of the Fed's top officials in recent days have made it increasingly clear that action is likely, even though others remain vocally opposed.

The next batch of U.S. inflation data comes Thursday and Friday, and is likely to show price pressures remain low, particularly for consumers. The Fed said in its latest statement that inflation was lower than it would like.

Low inflation raises concerns about the risk of deflation, a vicious circle of a downward spiral in prices and the economy.

While action seems assured, don't bank on the Fed performing economic miracles.

"One should not expect too much from further quantitative or credit easing," said Olivier Blanchard, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. "It should be done but the implications for the economy will be limited."

Christina Romer, who recently stepped down as a White House economic adviser, said the Fed is in uncharted waters and it is unclear how much further easing will accomplish.

"There's a lot of questions about quantitative easing and how it works and how communications policies work, but they need to be tried because this is still a crisis," she said.

MEASURING SUCCESS

The Fed, which has held interest rates near zero since December 2008, launched its asset-buying spree nearly two years ago, swelling its balance sheet to nearly $2.3 trillion from a pre-crisis level of around $800 billion.

The program succeeded in driving down borrowing costs, yet it did not spur as much lending as the Fed would have liked. Banks hoarded cash, fearful of racking up more loan losses so soon after the crippling financial crisis. Many companies balked at borrowing because of concerns about sluggish sales.

Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust in Chicago, said commercial bank credit will be the measure by which he judges the Fed's success this time. The central bank releases weekly statistics on commercial and industrial loans on Fridays.



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12:34 PM

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China's Zhou: Yuan appreciation must be gradual

Addison Ray

Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

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