1:33 AM

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Aussie dollar hits 29-year peak; Seoul shares shine

Addison Ray

SINGAPORE | Mon Apr 25, 2011 2:23am EDT

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The Australian dollar hit a fresh 29-year high and South Korea's benchmark share index touched another record intraday high on Monday, suggesting investors were still eager to embrace risk and higher-yielding assets.

Commodities pushed higher with spot gold hitting a record high of $1,517.71 an ounce and U.S. silver futures scaling a 31-year peak.

The dollar edged up 0.1 percent against a basket of currencies to 74.086 .DXY, but remained within sight of a trough of 73.735 struck last week, its lowest since August 2008.

The dollar rose 0.4 percent against the yen to 82.22 yen, supported by dollar-buying by Japanese importers and as traders took aim at stop-loss dollar buying orders said to be lurking near 82.50 yen.

"The market is thin today because London is closed today, and people are basically just trying to trigger stops," said a trader at a Japanese bank, referring to Easter Monday holidays across much of Europe.

Markets are looking to a news conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday after the bank's two-day policy meeting to see how the central bank plans to exit from its super-easy monetary policy.

Traders are also nervously watching Greece after newspaper reports that it is considering extending maturities on its sovereign debt as one option for a possible restructuring.

Most Asian stock markets were sluggish as they reopened after the long Easter weekend, but South Korea's benchmark stock index clawed above a peak scaled last week and hit another record intraday high. The benchmark index was last up 0.9 percent at 2,217.59 .KS11.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei share average dipped 0.1 percent .N225, but gains in shippers helped temper losses.

Japan's Nikkei business daily reported at the weekend that earnings sharply rebounded at three major marine transport companies in the year that ended on March 31.

Mitsui OSK Lines (9104.T) rose 2 percent, Nippon Yusen (9101.T) gained 1.3 percent and Kawasaki Kisen (9107.T) added 0.7 percent.

"The shippers' gains are straightforward. The expectations for good results reflect strong demand in the global economy and they suffered relatively little damage from the March earthquake," said Naoki Fujiwara, a fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management.

The Australian dollar, which tends to attract buying when the global economy is doing well and commodity prices rise, touched a 29-year high of $1.0777. It later trimmed its gains to stand at $1.0735, little changed on the day.

U.S. crude futures oil rose as violence in Syria and Yemen escalated over the weekend, stirring fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East and North Africa.

NYMEX crude for June delivery edged up 30 cents a barrel to $112.59.

U.S. 10-year Treasuries were little changed in price to yield 3.396 percent, down about 1 basis point from late U.S. trade on Thursday. The U.S. Treasury market was closed on Friday for a U.S. holiday.

Stock markets in Australia and Hong Kong were closed on Monday for a holiday. (Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa and Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo; Editing by Kim Coghill)



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1:14 AM

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NYSE sees higher savings in Deutsche Boerse deal

Addison Ray

NEW YORK | Sun Apr 24, 2011 9:42pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - NYSE Euronext sees cost savings in its $9.8 billion deal with Deutsche Boerse at closer to 400 million euros ($583 million), up by about a third from its initial estimate, according to a Big Board spokesman on Sunday.

NYSE Chief Executive Duncan Niederauer also sees the biggest NYSE and Deutsche Boerse customers saving at least $3 billion from the combination of their European derivatives platforms, according to spokesman Richard Adamonis.

Adamonis was confirming comments made earlier by Niederauer in an interview with the Financial Times.

The new savings estimate, along with a 100 million euros in benefits coming from cross-selling and distribution opportunities, would bring the total savings and benefits from the deal to about $725 million, closer to the estimates from a competing takeover offer.

Nasdaq OMX Group Inc and IntercontinentalExchange Inc have launched a rival $11.2 billion takeover bid for NYSE Euronext. That deal promises net savings and benefits, or synergies, of $740 million.

Last week, NYSE's board rejected the Nasdaq/ICE bid for the second time in 11 days.

JOB CUTS

U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer of New York was expected to ask Nasdaq and ICE about potential job losses if they succeeded in their bid, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.

In a letter expected to be sent Monday, Schumer cited estimates by NYSE that a merger with Nasdaq could cost 1,000 U.S. jobs, or about a third of the U.S.-based employees of the combined company, the Journal reported.

The estimates are based on NYSE's research from about 12 to 18 months ago when it looked at buying Nasdaq, the paper reported, citing an unnamed source.

Earlier this month, Schumer said he was concerned about the impact of the bid on jobs in New York.

A spokesman for Schumer could not be reached immediately for comment late on Sunday.

The U.S. lawmaker is one of the key political figures whose support could be crucial for any deal involving NYSE, the iconic exchange whose takeover can take on a populist hue.

Pride and nationalism around domestic exchanges have scuttled such deals in the past. Earlier this month, the Australian government blocked Singapore Exchange Ltd's $8 billion bid for ASX Ltd, saying changes to the country's financial systems were needed before foreigners could buy the bourse.

In their bid, Nasdaq and ICE are hoping some of these fears work to their advantage over the German exchange. They have appealed heavily to the United States' thirst for remaining the world's financial center, its anxiety about losing out on new listings and its need for a more stable market.

SHAREHOLDER VOTES

All four exchanges involved in the increasingly bitter takeover battle are trying to persuade NYSE shareholders to back their deal.

Niederauer's comments come ahead of a closely watched NYSE shareholder meeting on April 28 for their annual vote on the company's directors.

Analysts have said that vote could be an early sign of how shareholders feel about the NYSE board's decision to back the Deutsche Boerse over the rival, higher bid.

The vote on the Deutsche Boerse deal is expected on July 7, according to Niederauer's comments and confirmed by his spokesman.

(Reporting by Paritosh Bansal, editing by Bernard Orr and Matt Driskill)



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4:13 PM

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A fragile global recovery?

Addison Ray

NEW YORK | Sun Apr 24, 2011 5:16pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Data on how the U.S. and British economies fared in the first three months of the year due next week will likely highlight the tenuous nature of the recovery from recession in developed countries.

A combination of rising gasoline prices and bad weather has prompted a number of big banks to cut their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in the first quarter.

The preliminary snapshot of U.S. GDP growth, which a Reuters survey puts at 2.0 percent, will be released on April 28.

In the UK, where weak consumer demand is expected to weigh on first-quarter output, the preliminary reading will be released on Wednesday.

"The GDP figures will probably zoom in the focus more closely on fundamentals. A disappointment in the UK and U.S. may temper some of the buoyancy behind commodity and equity prices," said Lena Komileva, global head of G10 currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in London.

Many economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, believe commodity price rises will prove temporary, and will thus have no lasting impact on inflation or growth.

But the most recent data suggests the U.S. economy won't regain momentum soon. On Thursday, data showed factory activity in the Middle Atlantic states braked sharply in April.

Slower U.S. growth coupled with persistently high unemployment suggests the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates, even as it is almost certain to end a $600 billion bond buying program in June as planned.

Bernanke will get a chance to explain the Fed's thinking when he faces the media April 27 for his first post-meeting press conference.

"Communication is an extremely important tool for the Fed -- now more than ever -- to continue to manage down rate (hike) expectations at a time when it is too early for the economy to bear a rate hike," Komileva said.

Most analysts expect the Fed will hold support for the economy steady by maintaining the size of its balance sheet after June.

The Bank of England faces more pressure than the Fed to reverse course, with inflation seen rising again, and analysts say the GDP data may be important in influencing the BoE's decision on the timing of rate hikes.

Like the Fed, the BoE has kept rates at a record low for more than two years. In contrast, the European Central Bank raised borrowing costs this month for the first time since July 2008.

Weak GDP data would strengthen the hand of those Bank of England members worried what raising interest rates would do for fragile demand.

On the fiscal side, the UK is already undergoing strict austerity measures and may offer a preview of what lies in store for the United States when it starts to tighten its belt.

"The UK data is probably a little more due to fiscal austerity. That's something the U.S. ought to contend with next year, and the UK is contending with now," said Michael Feroli, U.S. economist at JPMorgan.

Standard & Poor's on Monday threatened to downgrade the United States' prized triple-A credit rating unless the Obama administration and Congress find a way to slash the yawning federal budget deficit within two years.

President Barack Obama on Wednesday warned that if the U.S. slashes spending too deeply, it could face a second recession.

"If all we are doing is spending cuts, and we are not discriminating about it, if we are using a machete instead of a scalpel, and we are cutting out things that create jobs, then the deficit could actually get worse because we could slip back into another recession," he said.

Complicating things further, the United States won't learn the full impact on its economy from last month's catastrophic earthquake and tsunami until the second quarter is well under way.

Feroli said the impact could be "pretty significant."

Japan, though, will get its first post-earthquake look at some important indicators, including inflation, household spending and industrial production.

The Bank of Japan is also set to provide an update of its growth and inflation forecasts.

(Editing by James Dalgleish)



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6:02 PM

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It's growth, but not as we know it

Addison Ray

NEW YORK | Sat Apr 23, 2011 6:09pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Large blue chips, including some consumer-oriented companies, will have to show they can counter sluggish developed economies by leveraging growth in emerging markets and technology -- if Wall Street is to maintain earnings momentum next week.

Companies like Microsoft, PepsiCo, and Coca-Cola, unloved on Wall Street, could turn out to be good buys if they can show they justify higher valuations than investors are now willing to give them.

"If you see these Cokes and Pepsis and these kinds of multinational consumer names post good results, I think it is going to give the perception that the equity market can overcome a lot of these domestic issues," said Nick Kalivas, an analyst at MF Global in Chicago.

Before the recession, the consumer and financial sectors benefited from huge credit expansion. Not so any more.

Growth is now concentrated in industrial, materials and energy stocks that benefit from strong demand in emerging markets, as well as a technology sector boosted by robust demand from businesses.

Average earnings growth across those sectors amounts to almost 33 percent in the first quarter over a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters data. That is more than double the estimated growth for the S&P 500 and towers over the 5 percent growth in a financial sector burdened by a weak housing market.

Investors will also want to see at least stable performance in developed markets as they gear up for a press conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke next week. Tough questions will be asked about what monetary policy will look like after the Fed's easy money policies come to a close at the end of June.

EMBRACING THE UNLOVED

Growth is scarce and it is driving up valuations in sectors where it is concentrated.

During the week, investors chased a host of relatively expensive technology names like Apple and VMware. Some valuations look extreme: Cloud computing company Saleforce.com is priced at nearly 300 times current earnings.

The trailing price-to-earnings ratio in the S&P's materials sector is more than 20 times current earnings compared with 16.3 for the whole market, according to data from Thomson Reuters' StarMine.

For investors like Whitney Tilson, a hedge fund manager at T2 Partners in New York, that is creating opportunities in unloved blue chips, where he is focusing his attention instead.

"There are a lot of big-cap blue-chip companies that are trading at moderate prices," he said.

"At a time when everyone is getting enamored with high- growth darlings and commodities, that is precisely the time when we look to play defense and own boring companies that we think have a lot of growth."

One of those less favored companies set to report next week is Microsoft. The company suffers from a reputation for slow growth and its price at nearly 11 times current earnings clearly reflects that.

Comparing Microsoft to Apple, Tilson says that the former is an inherently better business as it is focused on software with marginal incremental production costs compared to Apple's consumer hardware business.

Apple is "a fabulous business, but I'm simply pointing out that you can own a better business, albeit one that is not growing as quickly -- but still growing nicely -- for half the price in terms of price-to-earnings multiple," Tilson said.

Blowout earnings from Apple and exceptionally strong results from other big tech and industrial companies drove the three major U.S. stock indexes higher for the week. The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average ended the holiday-shortened week on Thursday at 12,505.99, its highest close for the year and its best closing level since June 5, 2008. For the week, the Dow and the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index each gained 1.3 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 2 percent.

U.S. financial markets were closed for Good Friday.

EARNINGS FRENZY, TALKING FED

Next week, 180 of the S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings. Of companies that have reported to date, 75 percent beat analysts' expectations. That is just above the average over the last four quarters, but well above the average of 62 percent since 1994, Thomson Reuters data showed.

"As people are lowering GDP (estimated) numbers seemingly weekly, the companies are still maintaining some pretty solid revenue growth and margins are staying intact," said Jerome Heppelmann, portfolio manager and chief investment officer of Old Mutual Focused Fund in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.

"I see it more as a broad-based continuation of the economic recovery," he said. "In some cases, the technology names are going to be more exposed and more levered to it."

While earnings are driving ahead at full force, investors will also focus on the first of the Federal Reserve's press conferences. The press briefing on Wednesday is scheduled to start after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee wraps up its two-day meeting. Bernanke, the Fed chairman, intends to give four press briefings a year.

There will likely be questions raised about the type of monetary policy the Fed will pursue when its $600 billion bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, or QE2 on Wall Street, draws to a close at the end of the June.

One school of thought says that QE2 drove the rally in stocks and commodities by underwriting the government's budget deficit and forcing money that would have gone into Treasury bonds into equity and commodity markets instead.

"What happens when QE2 ends and the government starts to withdraw some of that liquidity?" Tilson asked. "How much of this is just artificial, deficit-driven, money-printing stimulus? And how much of it is really genuine? I don't know the answer to that, but I worry."

(Reporting by Edward Krudy; Editing by Jan Paschal)



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5:42 PM

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Mizuho Bank head to resign over computer glitch: report

Addison Ray

TOKYO | Sat Apr 23, 2011 6:16pm EDT

TOKYO (Reuters) - The head of Mizuho Bank, the retail banking unit of Japan's second-largest lender Mizuho Financial Group, will resign by June over a massive computer glitch, the Asahi newspaper reported on Saturday.

Mizuho was hit by the glitch last month after accounts were flooded with donations for a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami in northeast Japan that killed up to 28,000 people.

The computer troubles forced shutdowns of Mizuho's automatic teller machines and disrupted transactions, adding to the woes of businesses and households already badly shaken by the disasters.

Mizuho Bank's president, Satoru Nishibori, is seen compiling a plan to prevent a recurrence of such glitches and formally announce his resignation by a shareholders' meeting in June, the Asahi said, without citing a source.

Candidates to replace him include Manabu Yoshidome, Mizuho Bank's deputy president, and Takashi Nonaka, president of Mizuho Trust & Banking, the Asahi added.

Some form of punishment for Mizuho Financial Group President and CEO Takashi Tsukamoto is also being considered, the newspaper said.

(Reporting by Chisa Fujioka; Editing by Robert Birsel)



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