5:47 AM

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Stock futures ease ahead of payrolls data

Addison Ray

NEW YORK | Fri Oct 7, 2011 7:41am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures eased on Friday after a three-day Wall Street rally as investors awaited a closely watched monthly report on employment, which is expected to show moderate gains after last month's flat reading.

* Economists forecast a total of 60,000 jobs were created in September, compared with no new jobs in August. Some tentative signs of improvement in recent economic numbers have helped calm fears the global economy was slipping back into recession.

* "The market is on hold obviously waiting for the unemployment number," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital in New York. "Any surprises above and beyond market expectations, then the market might respond to that."

* The Labor Department release its non-farm payrolls report at 8:30 EDT. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 9.1 percent.

* S&P 500 futures were down 4 points and below fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 20 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 3 points.

* Cardillo said investors would also be firmly focused on Europe. Optimism the region was on track in resolving its sovereign debt crisis helped drive a 6 percent rally in the S&P 500 over the last three sessions.

* "It's is all about the employment data and hopes for more good news from Europe over the weekend," Cardillo said.

* Investors have been focused on weakness in Europe's banking system. Credit agency Moody's cut its ratings on British banks Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY.L) and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS.L) on Friday and said it expected the U.K. government would have to continue to support the country's systemically important banks.

* Early Friday, the FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares was little changed after two days of sharp gains. The European Central Bank offered on Thursday to help struggling banks. Japan's Nikkei average .N225 closed up 1 percent.

* The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged on Friday, holding off from tapping its depleted policy arsenal for now although fears of a global recession and Europe's debt crisis were clouding the outlook for the fragile economy.

* From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 remains in a downtrend. The index has been trapped in a range in the past few months, deteriorating into lower lows. The index's wide range is seen from about 1,100 to 1,250.

* The Commerce Department releases wholesale inventories for August at 10 a.m. EDT. Economists predicted inventories to rise 0.5 percent versus a 0.8 percent increase in July.

(Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)



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5:27 AM

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Hiring seen as dismally weak in September

Addison Ray

WASHINGTON | Fri Oct 7, 2011 7:24am EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Employment likely grew only modestly in September, with hiring too weak to pull down a lofty jobless rate and dispel recession fears.

But while the tone of the government's closely followed employment report on Friday is expected to be soft, economists said it still should not be viewed as flagging a new downturn in the world's largest economy.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls probably increased 60,000 last month after holding steady in August, according to a Reuters survey. August was the first month in a year that the ailing economy failed to create jobs.

But much of September's relative strength will reflect the return of 45,000 Verizon Communications workers who had dropped off payrolls in August due to a strike. Excluding those workers, payrolls probably only increased by 15,000 for the month.

Private employment is expected to have increased 100,000 last month, an acceleration from August's paltry 17,000 count. But an 11th straight month of declines in government payrolls is expected.

The report will provide critical evidence of whether "the economy is stalling in response to heightened economic uncertainty and financial market volatility," said Carl Riccadonna, a senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank in New York. "We do not expect this to be the case."

The nation's weak labor market has posed a critical challenge for President Barack Obama, who is gearing up for a tough reelection battle in November 2012. Obama on Thursday used a news conference to press for measures to spur jobs growth that face uncertain prospects in Congress.

Recent reports on manufacturing, business spending and auto sales suggest the economy fared better in the third quarter after growing at an anemic 1.3 percent annual pace in the April-June period.

But some economists are warning Europe's debt crisis threatens to all but derail the U.S. recovery.

And while third-quarter growth is expected to top a 2 percent annualized pace, that is still too slow to make a dent in the high unemployment rate, which is expected to have held steady at 9.1 percent in September.

The economy needs to grow by at least a 2.5 percent rate, with payrolls expanding by 150,000 positions a month, to keep the jobless rate from rising.

JOBS ELUDE RECOVERY

Signs of growing labor market distress could pile pressure on the Federal Reserve and the Obama administration for more measures to put the 14 million jobless Americans back to work.

The U.S. central bank last month announced new steps to stimulate the economy by pushing long-term borrowing costs even lower by shifting assets on its balance sheet.

"Since the beginning of the year, employment growth has slowed by close on 80 percent. There is little hope of an improvement in the coming months," said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York.

Uncertainty over the economic outlook, which continues to be muddied by acrimony in Washington over budget policy and by Europe's inability to get to grips with its debt crisis, is making businesses reluctant to hire.

While the employment report will likely be weak, a few bright spots are expected. Hourly earnings are seen rebounding 0.2 percent after falling 0.1 percent in August.

An improvement in income is crucial for consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

"We're seeing consumers dipping into their savings to finance consumption. That is a little bit concerning given that equity prices are falling and house prices are flat to down," said Moody's Analytics' Sweet.

"Consumers could become refocused on building their nest egg cushion rather than spending."

Incomes dropped in August for the first time since October 2009, curbing spending and pushing savings to the lowest level in more than 1-1/2 years.

Manufacturing could provide another source of optimism, with employment in the sector expected to have risen after slipping in August. Manufacturing remains the main pillar of the economy, even though it accounts for only about 12 percent of gross domestic product.

Health care is expected to show another month of job gains. The sector has consistently added jobs as the baby boomers demand more health care services.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Leslie Adler)



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10:05 PM

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Asian stocks rise, euro steady on Europe bank

Addison Ray

SINGAPORE | Thu Oct 6, 2011 10:59pm EDT

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose on Friday and the euro clung to gains from a 2-cent rally after euro zone policymakers moved to shore up struggling banks and fend off a financial crisis.

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced aggressive liquidity measures on Thursday, throwing a lifeline to lenders who have seen wholesale funding drying up as market confidence ebbed, and the European Union said it would present a plan for a coordinated recapitalization of banks by member states.

Gold, oil, copper and equities were all on course to post weekly gains on hopes that Europe's leaders may finally be getting to grips with a two-year-old sovereign debt crisis, although the scale of the task meant caution remained high.

"There are still plenty of problems that face the European financial system," said Greg Gibbs, strategist at RBS in Sydney. "The risk rally will probably run out to steam in the next week."

Fears that the crisis is heading inexorably toward a default by Greece -- and possibly others -- that could trigger turmoil in the banking system have caused a sharp sell-off in riskier assets since late July.

AWAITING U.S. JOBS REPORT

Tokyo's Nikkei share average rose 1.1 percent on Friday, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 2.8 percent, led by a 4.2 percent gain from the materials sector.

U.S. stocks rose more that 1.5 percent on Thursday, as global stocks posted their third straight day of gains.

S&P 500 index futures traded in Asia were mildly negative, indicating some caution ahead of the non-farm payrolls report later, a weekly jobs gauge that is always closely watched for clues on the state of the U.S. economy.

"No one wants to take a big position ahead of the U.S. jobs report later in case there is a downside surprise," said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo.

Asian emerging markets have been punished hard in the market slide of recent months, with MSCI's Asia ex-Japan index falling more than 25 percent from its April high for the year, partly due to foreign fund managers taking money out of markets that had been outperforming to cover losses elsewhere.

Citigroup analysts said in a note that outflows from emerging market equity funds, which often set the overall market direction, had accelerated in the week to October 5, with a net $1.3 billion pulled from Asia.

RETURN OF RISK

The European Central Bank said on Thursday it was ready to buy bonds to provide longer-term cheap money for European lenders in need of funding.

And, in a further boost, European Commission President Manuel Barroso said the EU's executive arm was proposing coordinated action to cleanse banks of toxic assets, the most explicit statement yet from a top European official on joint action to help restore battered confidence in the sector.

The euro, which has fallen back from a 2011 peak near $1.50 in May, was steady around $1.3427, after jumping from a low of $1.3240 on Thursday.

While some investors were disappointed the ECB did not also cut interest rates, riskier assets such as equities, commodities and currencies linked to commodity markets, such as the Australian dollar, rallied.

Copper rose around 1.3 percent on Friday, extending a gain of nearly 6 percent in the previous session, but oil eased a little after a 3 percent bounce on Thursday.

Brent crude slipped 0.2 percent to $105.55 a barrel and U.S. crude was flat at $82.57.

As some confidence returned, credit markets tightened, with spreads measured by iTraxx's Asia ex-Japan investment grade corporate index coming in about 10 basis points, after a sharp widening at the start of the week.

Japanese government bonds eased, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising 1.5 basis points to 0.985 percent.

"If the U.S. jobs report shows strong figures, we may see more unwinding," said a fund manager at a Japanese asset management firm. "But a sharp correction in JGB prices is unlikely as investors' concerns are centered on the euro zone debt crisis, which will not be resolved easily."

(Additional reporting by Cecile Lefort in Sydney and Lisa Twaronite in Tokyo; Editing by Richard Borsuk)



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5:14 PM

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Apple's board needs to step up to new era

Addison Ray

SAN FRANCISCO/NEW YORK | Thu Oct 6, 2011 7:05pm EDT

SAN FRANCISCO/NEW YORK (Reuters) - The death of Apple Inc's strong-willed co-founder and Chairman Steve Jobs has put the secretive company's small board at crossroads.

Business as usual, or time for a change? The first signs of the future will be whether they choose an independent chairman and expand the number of directors.

Apple directors include heavy hitters, but they were seen offering advice to the chief executive rather than overseeing Jobs, who was known for persuading people to see things his way.

"The old message was "trust Steve," the new message has to be 'trust the team.' ... It's no longer the cult of personality." said Jim Post, a professor of corporate governance at Boston University School of Management who called for an independent chairman.

"The board needs to be expanded. They need to bring on additional independent talent ..., people who were not living in Steve's shadow," he said.

Apple's time frame for finding a new chairman -- and even whether it is seeking one -- is unclear. A spokesman declined to comment. Previously, Apple had no chairman but only co-lead directors.

Apple's board has long been criticized for its lack of disclosure, particularly about leadership succession as Jobs' battled illnesses whose details were not made public.

Jobs had also been reported to keep the board in the dark at times.

Even in his efforts to praise Jobs, Google Chairman Eric Schmidt and former Apple board member showed how complicated working with Jobs could be in an interview on CNBC Thursday.

"I remember meeting with him with a bunch of people on some technical matters, on which I was an expert," Schmidt said.

"He convinced me that I was completely wrong. We spent a whole hour trying to figure out why," said Schmidt. "He sees us and runs back out to continue to argue to make sure we see how right he is. That's the passion he had about being right and being excellent."

SOMEONE TO "STIR THE POT"

Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook, who is a likely candidate for chairman, arguably has enough to do for now.

"(Cook's) got too much on his plate now" to be chairman as well, said Jefferies & Co analyst Peter Misek.

Apple's board, with just seven current members, is one of the smallest and most opaque in the industry. Most of Apple's peers have boards that have 10 directors.

"Much like Disney, Apple's founder was the brand. He was their Mickey Mouse, he was their Betty Crocker," said corporate governance expert Nell Minow of GovernanceMetrics International. "They have to replace him in five different ways."

A bigger board would mean more experience and diversity.

A new, independent chairman also could help the company retain investor support, examine decisions and help Apple keep its edge in the hyper-competitive electronics business.

"Having a lead on the board is important and that person should be different to the lead of the company (the CEO)," analyst Colin Gillis of BGC Partners said. "It creates tension but it's a healthy tension."

"They need somebody who's going to stir the pot," said Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Professor at the Yale School of Management.

(Reporting by Sinead Carew and Poornima Gupta and Liana Baker; Editing by Richard Chang)



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4:33 PM

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EU works on banks, Obama urges swift action

Addison Ray

BRUSSELS/BERLIN | Thu Oct 6, 2011 5:13pm EDT

BRUSSELS/BERLIN (Reuters) - European Union moves to shore up ailing banks moved into higher gear on Thursday as President Barack Obama urged European leaders to act faster to tackle a sovereign debt crisis that threatens global economic recovery.

The EU's executive arm said it would present a plan for member states to coordinate a recapitalization of their banks, as regulators met in London to reassess the capital buffers of stressed lenders that received a clean bill of health in July.

The European Central Bank threw a lifeline to commercial banks by turning up its liquidity pumps to provide longer-term cheap money for the growing number of European lenders which have seen wholesale funding dry up as market confidence ebbs.

The moves came amid fears that Greece, the most heavily indebted euro zone state, may default within months, setting off a chain reaction of sovereign downgrades and bank failures.

"We are now proposing member states to have a coordinated action to recapitalize banks and so to get rid of toxic assets they may have," European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said in a television interview relayed on YouTube.

It was the most explicit statement yet from a top European official on joint action to help restore confidence in a banking sector that is increasingly being shunned by investors as the euro zone debt crisis deepens.

However, a senior EU official told Reuters there would be no common European mechanism to deal with toxic assets, and no joint "bad bank" for Europe.

In a positive sign, the Dutch parliament voted in favor of an enhanced euro zone bailout plan -- leaving Slovakia and Malta the only euro zone members that still must put their legislative stamp of approval on changes agreed last July.

Some 96 of 150 members of the lower house of the Dutch parliament voted to uphold a beefed up European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).

In Washington, Obama told a news conference that uncertainty about the euro zone crisis was hitting global markets and posed the biggest headwind to the U.S. economy.

Ratcheting up pressure on European leaders, he said he hoped they would have a concrete plan in time for a November 3-4 Group of 20 summit to overcome the debt crisis by creating enough "firepower" to help weaker member states.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told Congress in prepared testimony: "The critical imperative is to ensure that the governments and the financial systems under pressure have access to a more powerful financial backstop."

In the first case of a bank felled by the crisis, Franco-Belgian municipal lender Dexia's board will vote on a break-up plan on Saturday as the French and Belgian governments argue over how to split the cost to the taxpayer.

Barroso would not speculate on how much money would be needed for recapitalization across the 27-nation bloc but his comments helped push European shares up 2.4 percent on the day as investors welcoming signs of action.

The ECB disappointed some investors by leaving interest rates unchanged at 1.5 percent, on a split decision, despite signs of a sharp slowdown in the European economy. But it compensated with a raft of measures to boost liquidity.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet announced after chairing his final monetary policy meeting before retiring that the ECB will provide unlimited one-year funding in two operations and revive its policy of buying covered bonds for up to 40 billion euros.

SAME FATE?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Europe should not hesitate to recapitalize its banks if this prevents greater economic damage, and leaders would take very seriously expert advice that the time was ripe for such a step.

Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of euro zone finance ministers, said banks in need of capital should turn first to the markets, then to national governments and as a last resort to the euro zone's rescue fund.

Some officials fear other lenders could suffer a similar fate to Dexia, even though they passed the European Banking Authority's (EBA) July stress test of 91 banks in the EU.

Those tests concluded that only eight banks failed and that they needed a collective 2.5 billion euros ($3.3 billion) -- a fraction of the up to 200 billion euros the International Monetary Fund believes EU banks require.

The EBA, which set the criteria for the tests carried out by national regulators, held the second day of a board meeting to review banks' capital needs based on the same data which formed the basis of those tests.

If the banks were forced to mark sovereign bonds holdings to current market prices, 18 would fail with a total capital hole of 40 billion euros, according to a Reuters Breakingviews stress test calculator.

EU Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said there was a need to reassess bank assets, especially sovereign debt, to promote recapitalization, but public money should be used only as a last resort and in line with the bloc's state aid rules.

The EBA is preparing the ground by determining which lenders should be included in any coordinated recapitalization that its members would oversee. The European Commission has no power to impose a recapitalization plan on EU states.

Markets and industry officials say the key missing piece is whether enough money can be found fast enough to fund a recapitalization plan and stop contagion from Greece or Dexia.

"The euro zone knows what it needs to do and should just get on with it," a UK banking industry official said.

The EBA, made up of regulators and central bankers from EU member states, said it was asked by the European Systemic Risk Board last month to "coordinate efforts to strengthen bank capital.

It is under pressure after its chairman, Andrea Enria, admitted on Tuesday that this year's stress test, which Dexia passed with flying colors, failed to reassure investors.

Some banks have come under heavy criticism for not updating investors clearly on the value of their government debt holdings and bumping up capital buffers to cover markdowns.

(Additional reporting by Alister Bull, Dave Clarke and Rachelle Younglai in Washington, Huw Jones in London, Philip Blenkinsop and Jan Strupczewski in Brussels; Writing by Paul Taylor, editing by Mike Peacock, Ron Askew, Chizu Nomiyama)



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