10:28 PM

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Asia stocks rise and yen steady but outlook hazy

Addison Ray

HONG KONG | Thu Sep 9, 2010 12:20am EDT

HONG KONG Reuters - Asian stocks edged up and the yen slipped from a 15-year high on Thursday, after a small rally on Wall Street driven by successful European bond auctions gave investors an excuse to lighten up on their bets.

However, the two biggest issues on investors minds -- European financial stability and the slowing U.S. recovery -- held bargain hunting in check and risk taking at a minimum.

Australia was the exception, where rising equities led Asia on a solid labor market report, which also drove the Australian dollar to a four-month high.

Meanwhile, the yens 11 percent rise has battered depressed Japanese equity valuations, with stocks trading at the cheapest relative to expected earnings since December 2008.

With uncertainty rife about how much more the yens climb has to run, investors were cautious about rebuilding their Japanese stock portfolios just yet.

"Worries about Europe were soothed somewhat following a bond auction in Portugal, and that prompted short-covering in the market, which was hit hard by the advance in the yen versus the dollar and the euro yesterday," said Tsuyoshi Segawa, an equity strategist at Mizuho Securities.

"But market players were reminded that Europes sovereign concerns are continuing and thats not something that will improve right away," Segawa said.

The Nikkei share average .N225 was up 0.7 percent but was still down 3.2 percent for the quarter and is the third-worst performing Asian stock market this year.

Japanese stocks were trading at 12.9 times expected earnings one year ahead, the lowest since December 2008, when markets were in the midst of the financial crisis, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S data showed.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan was up 0.5 percent, led by early gains in the materials sector. The index has risen 9.8 percent in the quarter so far, slightly outperforming the all-country world indexs 8.6 percent rise.

The yen was steady with global equity markets edging higher, with the dollar at 83.79 yen, nearly unchanged on the day. The dollar hit a 15-year low on Wednesday around 83.34 yen.

The Australian dollar was a big mover on the day, rising 0.4 percent to US$0.9224, the highest since May. Australian employment in August was surprisingly strong, lifting the stock market .AXJO and knocking bond futures lower.

"Its good news in a sense it means household income and spending will probably grow," Michael Blythe, chief economist at CBA in Sydney, said of the surge in Australian employment. "But it comes at the risk of rising inflation pressure as well."

Additional reporting by Aiko Hayashi in Tokyo



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10:08 PM

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Economists cut U.S. growth forecast again

Addison Ray

WASHINGTON | Thu Sep 9, 2010 12:17am EDT

WASHINGTON Reuters - Projected U.S. economic growth for the rest of this year and next was revised down for a third month in a row by a panel of about 50 economists.

The latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators report on Thursday said the weaker outlook for second-half 2010 growth stemmed from lower expectations for consumer spending, business investment and private construction.

"Growth in the current quarter now is expected to be little better than the disappointingly soft advance registered last quarter," the survey said. Gross domestic product grew at a meager 1.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter, less than half the first quarters 3.7 percent rate.

But the economists group said that, after the mid-year soft patch, it saw a gradual improving trend setting in with growth slightly surpassing trend rate in the second half of 2011.

Blue Chip defines GDP trend growth at about 2-3/4 percent a year.

"For all of 2010, real GDP now is forecast to increase 2.7 percent on a year-to-year basis, 0.2 of a percentage point less than a month ago and 0.6 of a point less than predicted in June," the survey said.

Its consensus forecast for real GDP growth in 2011 was cut by 0.3 of a percentage point from a month ago to 2.5 percent.

"Given the depth of the recession, a forecast of roughly trend growth this year and next amounts to a very disappointing pace of recovery, with little progress expected to be made in lowering the unemployment rate," the forecast said.

Its consensus forecast is that the U.S. unemployment rate will end this year at 9.6 percent and fall only to 9 percent by the end of 2011.

It forecast that after averaging 554,000 new housing units in 2009, starts this year will rise to 600,000 and to 760,000 units in 2011. "Although residential investment appears destined to subtract from GDP in the second half of this year, double digit growth is expected by early 2011, with rates of growth over 30 percent by the second half," Blue Chip said.

The economists said they expect short-term interest rates to remain very low before starting to rise next summer. They said the Federal Reserve -- the U.S. central bank -- likely will keep the federal funds rate at its current range of zero to 0.25 percent through mid-2011, finally raising it to 0.75 percent by the end of 2011.

Reporting by Glenn Somerville; Editing by James Dalgleish



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9:23 PM

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U.S. slips in WEFs competitiveness rankings Reuters

Addison Ray

BEIJING Reuters Switzerland remains the worlds most competitive economy, while the United States has fallen from second to fourth, according to the World Economic Forum.

The United States was overtaken in the WEFs Global Competitiveness Report 2010/2011 by Sweden in second spot and Singapore in third.

Last year the Asian city state ranked third and Sweden fourth.

The WEF attributed Americas slipping competitiveness to a build-up in U.S. macroeconomic imbalances, a weakening of the countrys public and private institutions and concerns about the state of its financial markets.

China moved up two places in the rankings to 27th.

The Geneva-based group released the report ahead of a meeting next week in the port city of Tianjin near Beijing.

Reporting by Aileen Wang and Alan Wheatley; Editing by Ken Wills



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9:20 PM

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U.S. slips in WEFs competitiveness rankings

Addison Ray

Thomson Reuters is the worlds largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

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7:10 PM

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Obama: U.S. cant afford to extend tax cuts for rich Reuters

Addison Ray

PARMA, Ohio Reuters President Barack Obama, fighting to keep Democrats in charge of Congress, said on Wednesday the United States could not afford to extend Bush-era tax cuts for the rich and accused Republicans of being fiscally irresponsible.

On a campaign trip to Ohio less than two months before November 2 congressional elections, Obama admitted his economic policies had not worked as quickly as hoped, but said his party and proposals were still better placed to boost the U.S. economy.

Obamas comments, laced with political rhetoric, came amid a growing verbal battle with Republicans over tax cuts for wealthy Americans enacted under former President George W. Bush and set to expire at the end of this year.

John Boehner, the Republican leader in the House of Representatives, called for a two-year freeze on current U.S. tax rates and proposed the government cut spending for next year to 2008 levels, before the controversial federal bailouts and Obamas $814 billion stimulus plan.

Obama rejected that call but said his administration was ready to extend tax cuts for families making less than $250,000 a year.

"For any income over this amount, the tax rates would go back to what they were under President Clinton. This isnt to punish folks who are better off -- God bless them -- it is because we cant afford the $700 billion price tag," he said.

Republicans blame Obama for inflating the deficit, forecast at a record $1.47 trillion in 2010, or 10 percent of GDP, with bloated stimulus spending they say failed to deliver jobs.

The White House is seeking to use a version of the same argument against the Republicans by saying extending Bushs tax cuts would increase the deficit too.

With the unemployment rate at 9.6 percent, Obamas Democrats are struggling to keep control of the House in the November elections and may even lose the Senate.

Nodding to that threat, the president said Democrats must ensure the November vote is about policy differences between the two parties, not the poor performance of the economy.

"If the election is a referendum on are people satisfied about the economy as it currently is, then were not going to do well, because I think everybody feels like this economy needs to do better than it has been doing," Obama told ABC News in an excerpt of an interview taped in Cleveland after his speech.

"My challenge, and the challenge of every Democratic candidate who is out there, is just making sure people understand that there is a choice here," he said.

Boehner, who is from Ohio and would likely replace Democrat Nancy Pelosi as House speaker if Republicans win a majority, cited Peter Orszag, Obamas former budget director, who wrote in The New York Times on Tuesday that extending the tax cuts to the rich would be worth it if that led to a deal in Congress.

"If the president is serious about finally focusing on jobs, a good start would be taking the advice of his recently departed budget director and freezing all tax rates, coupled with cutting federal spending to where it was before all the bailouts, government takeovers, and stimulus spending sprees," Boehner said in a statement after Obamas speech.

OBAMA VS BOEHNER

Ohio is a politically important state that often swings between supporting Democrats and Republicans.

Obama had especially harsh words for Boehner, who called recently -- during a speech in Ohio -- for the president to fire his economic team.

"When these same Republicans -- including Mr. Boehner -- were in charge, the number of earmarks and pet projects went up, not down," Obama said, referring to expensive projects called "earmarks" lawmakers add to congressional bills.

"These same Republicans turned a record surplus into a record deficit ... And when you ask them what programs theyd actually cut, they dont have an answer. Thats not fiscal responsibility. Thats not a serious plan to govern."

Boehner said extending the tax cuts would give certainty to small businesses -- a key constituency both parties see as crucial to boosting the sluggish economy.

Obama said the economy had improved since he took over from his Republican predecessor but the pace was slow.

"Not everything weve done over the last two years has worked as quickly as we had hoped, and I am keenly aware that not all our policies have been popular," he said.

The White House hopes its latest policies will be winners with the public, despite dim chances Republicans will support them in Congress.

Obama proposed accelerating $200 billion in business tax write-offs; an infrastructure spending boost of at least $50 billion; and increasing and permanently extending a research and development tax credit costing $100 billion over 10 years.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told CNBC he believed there was support in Congress for the proposals and said the country was recovering slowly from a "savage" recession.

Economists said the new plans could provide a modest burst of activity in a slow-growth economy. The risk is that they would only pull forward investments, which would do little to alter a sluggish growth trajectory and spur hiring to alleviate the 9.6 percent unemployment rate.

The White House says the eventual cost of accelerating the $200 billion in tax write-offs would be $30 billion, because businesses would eventually deduct the depreciation of their equipment. That would bring the total value of the proposed programs to about $180 billion, or more, over time.

Additional reporting by Alister Bull and Matt Spetalnick; Writing by Jeff Mason; Editing by Jerry Norton and Peter Cooney



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