1:01 AM

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Geithner suggests major currencies "in alignment"

Addison Ray

GYEONGJU, South Korea | Thu Oct 21, 2010 3:07am EDT

GYEONGJU, South Korea (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Thursday said major world currencies were "roughly in alignment" and called on Group of 20 finance leaders to agree to "norms" on exchange rate policy.

Laying out his agenda for this weekend's G20 meetings in South Korea , Geithner said in a Wall Street Journal interview he would seek numerical targets for "sustainable" trade surpluses and deficits as a way to help rebalance the global economy.

He is hoping that by persuading major emerging and advanced economies to cooperate on foreign exchange policies, he can coax China into allowing the value of its yuan to rise further.

"Right now, there is no established sense of what's fair," Geithner told the Journal.

"We would like countries to move toward a set of norms on exchange rate policy," he added.

Geithner also sought to provide some reassurances that the United States is not deliberately trying to devalue its dollar.

The Journal said that in the interview he suggested that he saw little reason for the dollar to sink further against the euro and the yen, saying that these "major currencies" were "roughly in alignment now."

The comments briefly lifted the dollar in Asian trade, pushing it up to 81.84 yen from about 81 yen. It settled back down to 81.15, near a 15-year low.

Geithner on Monday in California vowed that the United States would not engage in dollar devaluation, saying "No country around the world can devalue its way to prosperity."

CURRENCY TAKES CENTER STAGE

While past G20 meetings avoided direct confrontation on thorny exchange rate issues, the meetings starting on Friday in Gyeongju are expected to address the problem head-on. The dollar's protracted slide and China's tightly controlled trading band for the yuan have put upward pressure on other emerging market currencies that are allowed to move more freely.

Actions by several countries, including Brazil this week, to stem the rise of their currencies and protect their exporters, has fueled talk of a "currency war."

While some criticism has been leveled at U.S. Federal Reserve monetary easing for weakening the dollar, U.S. officials point to China's determination to prevent its yuan from rising as the main source of tensions.

"When large economies with undervalued exchange rates act to keep their currencies from appreciating, that compels other countries to do the same, setting off a dynamic of competitive nonappreciation," a senior Treasury official told a news briefing on Wednesday, referring to China.

Geithner repeated his view that China's yuan is significantly undervalued, but if the pace of appreciation since September were sustained, it would correct the undervaluation over time.



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12:41 AM

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Dollar jumps on Geithner report and stocks ease

Addison Ray

SINGAPORE | Thu Oct 21, 2010 2:46am EDT

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar jumped on Thursday after Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner suggested major currencies were roughly in alignment, while stocks fell as investors digested data showing China's growth ebbed in the third quarter even as inflation edged higher.

In an interview published in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, Geithner suggested that he saw no need for the dollar to sink further against the euro and the yen, causing the dollar to spike half a yen and climb rapidly against the euro.

The dollar rose as far as 81.84 yen from about 81.00 yen before Geithner's comments came out while the euro fell 0.6 percent in a matter of minutes as the market, taking the comments to imply that the dollar did not need to fall further, covered dollar short positions.

By late morning, however, it pared some of its early gains, and the dollar index .DXY against a basket of major currencies was up 0.2 percent.

The drop in the yen, which is still near 15-year highs against the U.S. currency, briefly pulled Japan's benchmark Nikkei .N225 out of negative territory before slipping back 0.3 percent.

"The Nikkei rebounded strongly after the dollar jumped against the yen on Geithner's comments," said Takashi Ohba, senior strategist at Okasan Securities.

"This could have prompted active short-covering by foreign players who were detected selling Nikkei futures heavily the previous day."

The MSCI index of Asia shares outside of Japan also weakened slightly, shrugging off overnight gains on Wall Street as traders took profits after a strong run-up in September and early October.

Talk of competitive currency depreciation has flared ahead of a G20 finance ministers meeting this week and a G20 summit next month, as developed countries keep monetary policy extremely easy to shore up sluggish growth and as capital flows in search of better yields push up currencies in faster growing emerging economies.

"It's become a bit difficult to test the dollar's downside for now," said Katsunori Kitakura, chief dealer at Chuo Mitsui Trust Bank.

"It seems as if the G7 has formed a united front ahead of the G20 meeting, as he's saying he's mainly focusing on emerging economies when it comes to currencies."

CHINA GROWTH COOLS A BIT BUT STILL ROBUST

The Shanghai stock market .SSEC briefly turned positive after data showed China's economic growth ebbed in the third quarter and inflation edged just a touch higher. But Shanghai quickly surrendered the gains and was down 1.3 percent by midday, helping pull Hong Kong shares .HSI lower.

The Chinese data was broadly in line with forecasts, suggesting that a surprise interest rate rise from this week may be enough for now, but markets remain wary of further policy tightening by the central bank.

Economic growth slowed to 9.6 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, down from 10.3 percent in the second quarter. Analysts had expected a 9.5 percent pace.



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12:21 AM

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EBay beats and raises, sees improved holiday

Addison Ray

SAN FRANCISCO | Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:54pm EDT

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - EBay Inc posted a better-than-expected quarterly profit and forecast stronger holiday earnings as the Internet commerce company enjoys robust growth at PayPal while striving to reinvigorate its main marketplaces unit.

The company also raised its full-year revenue and profit forecast and its shares rose 7.3 percent in after-hours trading.

EBay, which began as an online auction house, but sees most of its sales at fixed prices, is in the latter half of a three-year turnaround focused on its marketplaces unit.

The company competes with Amazon.com Inc and a host of e-commerce retailers, all of whom are hoping to appeal to cost-conscious shoppers still pressured by high unemployment and a sluggish U.S. economy.

The company, which also owns PayPal, expects fourth-quarter revenue of $2.39 billion to $2.49 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of 45 cents to 48 cents.

That is above the 44 cents per share on revenue of $2.4 billion that analysts have been expecting, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

"This is good across all their businesses," said UBS analyst Brian Pitz, adding the results and forecast would improve lukewarm investor sentiment toward eBay. "They're starting to see traction with marketplaces and they expect pretty decent results in the fourth quarter."

For the full year, eBay expects revenues to range between $9.05 billion to $9.15 billion on adjusted earnings of $1.67 to $1.70 per share.

That was above an earlier revenue range of $8.8 billion to $9.0 billion on adjusted earnings per share of $1.60 to $1.65.

"With our U.S. business stabilized, we are making the adjustments necessary to capitalize on the pricing and search changes made earlier this year and we are continuing to innovate around the user experience," Chief Executive John Donahoe told analysts on a call.

EBay has tried to simplify its process for listing items and lowered upfront fees to encourage more sellers, while focusing on safety measures to protect buyers.

Chief Financial Officer Bob Swan said the marketplaces division should have a "strong performance" in Europe and a "stable performance" in the United States over the holiday season.

The November and December holiday season is a key selling period for e-commerce players and their brick-and-mortar rivals. Market research firm comScore said last week that holiday online spending could rise between 7 percent and 9 percent this season.

Investors are awaiting a holiday forecast from Amazon.com when it reports third-quarter results on Thursday. Amazon is generally expected to dominate e-commerce holiday sales as it fosters shopper loyalty and cuts prices.

Analysts, on average, expect Amazon to post a 36 percent gain in 2010 revenue, compared with the 5 percent eBay expects at its high end.



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1:23 PM

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Economy grew sluggishly in recent weeks: Fed

Addison Ray

WASHINGTON | Wed Oct 20, 2010 4:11pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The economy grew sluggishly in recent weeks, with businesses struggling to raise prices and reluctant to hire and invest, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday.

The U.S. central bank's Beige Book provided the latest evidence the economy is stuck in a recovery too weak to generate new jobs, and reinforced the view in financial markets that the Fed will soon ease monetary policy further.

"National economic activity continued to rise, albeit at a modest pace," the Fed said in the report, which was prepared its next policy-setting session on November 2-3.

A separate report showing mortgage applications slumped last week highlighted lingering weakness in housing markets.

The Fed's report, which showed consumers were focused on buying only necessary items, had little impact on financial markets on Wednesday.

G20 FINANCE MINISTER MEET THIS WEEK

The central bank's march toward more stimulus for the economy has driven the U.S. dollar down in the past month and caused consternation among emerging markets whose currencies have been pushed up by investors seeking higher yields in other countries.

Global currency tensions are expected to get a thorough airing at meetings of the Group of 20 nations in Korea later this week. Many emerging market countries have taken steps to restrain their currencies from rising out of fear their exports would get choked off.

The Fed has already cut rates to near zero and bought $1.7 trillion in government and mortgage-related debt to support the economy, which exited a painful recession in June of last year.

The dollar slumped anew on Wednesday on a report from an influential consulting group saying the Fed plans to purchase $500 billion in U.S. Treasury securities over six months as part of its next round of help for the faltering recover.

Although comments from a number of Fed policymakers in recent days point to a growing consensus in favor of another round of monetary easing, one official signaled on Wednesday he does not think conditions warrant Fed action.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser said he does not currently see "a great fear" of deflation although he added that he could change his mind based on incoming data.

"I don't see the pay-offs for unemployment as very great and I don't see the necessity of it at this point given my forecast on inflation," Plosser told reporters after giving a speech to the Union League of Philadelphia.

MANUFACTURING STRONGER

The Beige Book found that manufacturing had strengthened in most of the Fed's 12 districts, buoyed by exports in many places.



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8:32 AM

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Osborne wields UK spending axe

Addison Ray

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George Osborne: '"It will always pay to work"

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Chancellor George Osborne has unveiled the biggest UK spending cuts since World War II, with welfare, councils and police budgets all hit.

The pension age will rise sooner than expected, some incapacity benefits will be time limited and other money clawed back through changes to tax credits and housing benefit.

A new bank levy will also be brought in - with full details due on Thursday.

Mr Osborne said the four year cuts were guided by fairness, reform and growth.

But shadow chancellor Alan Johnson, for Labour, called the review a "reckless gamble with people's livelihoods" which risked "stifling the fragile recovery" - a message echoed by the SNP, despite better than expected cuts in Scotland.

Mr Osborne ended his Commons statement, by claiming the 19% average cuts to departmental budgets were less severe than the 25% expected - thanks to an extra �7bn in savings from the welfare budget.

He claimed this meant his savings were less than the 20% cuts Labour had planned ahead of the general election.

Outlining his Spending Review in the Commons, which includes �81bn in spending cuts over four years, he told MPs: "Today is the day when Britain steps back from the brink, when we confront the bills from a decade of debt."

He claimed the programme would restore "sanity to our public finances and stability to our economy", telling MPs: "It is a hard road, but it leads to a better future."

The government will slash the amount of money it gives to local councils by 7.1% from April, but will give local authorities more control over how council tax money is spent.

Universal benefits for pensioners will be retained as budgeted for by the previous government and the temporary increase in the cold weather payment will be made permanent.

But a planned rise in the state pension age for men and women to 66 will start in 2020, six years earlier than planned.

The main new welfare savings come from abolishing Employment and Support Allowance for some categories of claimant after one year, raising �2bn, and higher contributions to public sector pensions.

Bank levy

Mr Osborne also said axing child benefit from top rate taxpayers would raise �2.5bn - more than predicted when the policy was announced earlier this month.

Up to 500,000 public sector jobs could go by 2014-15 as a result of the cuts programme, according to the Office for Budgetary Responsibility.

Mr Osborne has not set out in detail where the jobs will go but he admitted there will be some redundancies in the public sector, which he said were unavoidable when the country had run out of money.

He has set out extensive cuts to the budgets of individual government departments including:

  • Home Office - 6% cuts, with police spending down by 4% each year of the spending settlement
  • Foreign Office - 24% cut through reduction in the number of Whitehall-based diplomats and back office costs
  • HM Revenue and Customs - 15% through the better use of new technology and greater efficiency
  • Justice - 6%, with plans for a new 1,500 place prison dropped and local courts closed

The Department for International Development's budget will rise to �11.5bn over the next four years, reaching 0.7% of national income in 2013.

The science budget will be ringfenced and the increase for the NHS over the whole spending period has been confirmed as 0.4%, or 0.1% a year.

The schools budget will rise from �35bn to �39bn and, overall, the Department for Education will be required to find resource savings of just 1% a year.

Each government department will next month publish a business plan setting out reform plans for the next four years.

The government will also deliver �6bn of Whitehall savings - double the �3bn promised earlier, said the chancellor.

The Spending Review is the culmination of months of heated negotiations with ministers over their departmental budgets and comes a day after the Ministry of Defence and the BBC learned their financial fate.

'Irresponsible gamble'

The MoD is facing cuts of 8% - less than most other departments but enough to mean 42,000 service personnel and civil servants will lose their jobs over the next five years and high-profile equipment such as Harrier jump jets, the Ark Royal aircraft carrier and Nimrod spy planes will be scrapped.

The BBC has been told it must freeze the licence fee for six years and take over the cost of the World Service, currently funded by the Foreign Office, and the Welsh language TV channel S4C. This adds up to an estimated 16% cut in the BBC's budget in real terms.

The chancellor insists tough action on spending is needed to stave off a debt crisis - and that the private sector will create new jobs to fill the void.

Labour would also have had to make major cuts if they had won the general election, but the party insists Mr Osborne's plans were too aggressive and risked tipping the country into a "double dip" recession.

During raucous Commons exchanges, Shadow chancellor Alan Johnson accused Tory backbenchers of cheering "the deepest cuts to public spending in living memory".

He claimed that for some on the government benches cuts were an "ideological objective" and "what they had come into politics for".

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