6:34 PM
Budget deal avoids shutdown but fight ahead
Addison Ray
By Patricia Zengerle and Jeff Mason
WASHINGTON | Sat Apr 9, 2011 8:29pm EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama signed a short-term spending bill on Saturday that averted a government shutdown, formalizing a compromise deal with Republicans that paves the way for more -- and bigger -- deficit-reduction fights to come.
With just over an hour to spare before a midnight deadline, Obama's Democrats and opposition Republicans agreed on Friday to a budget compromise that will cut about $38 billion in spending for the last six months of this fiscal year.
After signing the stopgap spending bill to keep the federal government running until the deal can be formally approved in the coming days, Obama underscored the fact that Washington was open with a surprise visit to the Lincoln Memorial.
"I just wanted to say ... that because Congress was able to settle its difference, that's why this place is open today and everybody's able to enjoy their visit," he told cheering tourists from the monument steps.
Friday night's agreement -- after a furious battle over spending and social issues like abortion rights -- averted a shutdown that would have weakened the U.S. economic recovery, forced furloughs for some 800,000 federal employees, delayed paychecks for troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, and closed national parks and monuments.
Obama said the pact involved painful compromises. "I would not have made these cuts in better circumstances. But we also prevented this important debate from being overtaken by politics and unrelated disagreements on social issues," he said in his weekly radio address.
DEFICIT WOES
The deal angered some Democrats, who said it unfairly punished working-class Americans as they deal with the lingering effects of a steep economic recession, after Obama agreed to a deal in December that cut taxes for the rich.
"These things are bad. I think it's also bad for the American economy," Representative Eliot Engel said on MSNBC.
Republicans lost no time in stressing the deal did not mean they were ready to compromise as the government grapples with a deficit expected to hit $1.4 trillion this year.
"Washington has not been telling you the truth about the magnitude of the problems we are facing," Representative Paul Ryan, who has announced a budget plan to save $6 trillion over the next decade, partly by cutting government-run health programs for the poor and elderly, said in the Republicans' Saturday radio address.
The White House made clear it was looking ahead to the next funding fights. Senior administration officials told reporters the deal was a sign the parties could work together on issues like increasing the debt ceiling and cutting the deficit.
"(There's a) very important message tonight to the American people and hope for the future that our leaders can come together and ... produce what is the biggest annual spending cut in the history of the country," one said.
The government could hit the current $14.3 trillion limit on its borrowing authority by mid-May and will need Congress to approve another increase in that debt ceiling.
Congress must also approve a budget for the next fiscal year, a fight likely to last well into the 2012 campaign season as Obama seeks a second term.
8:24 PM
Will corporate earnings justify gains?
Addison Ray
NEW YORK | Fri Apr 8, 2011 5:36pm EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors will look to corporate profits and outlooks next week for confirmation the S&P 500 has another leg to its rally as the earnings season gets under way.
Dow component Alcoa will launch the earnings season after the closing bell on Monday in what is expected to be another solid round of corporate results.
The aluminum producer is expected to report quarterly earnings of 27 cents per share on revenue of $6.07 billion, according to Thomson Reuters estimates.
Some top financial names are also expected to report next week, including JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and Bank of America Corp (BAC.N). Google Inc (GOOG.O) is also due to report.
"Earnings are what the market is all about. Earnings are critical in here, guidance is critical in here, the conference calls are critical in here," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services in Charlotte, Vermont.
"In terms of earnings and sectors, you basically want to be with those people who have the ability to raise prices or are participating in the commodity price increases," he said. "And you really don't want to be in those people who have the input costs increases and are going to see their margins squeezed by rising commodity prices.
Market analysts have found encouragement for a strong earnings season from the relatively light amount of company preannouncements, leading to the belief that surging commodity costs have yet to compress margins and impact corporate profits.
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index rose 8 percent in the first quarter and is up 2.6 percent so far in April, and hit its highest level since September 2008.
The S&P 500 .SPX has recouped all of the losses suffered in the wake of the Japanese earthquake on March 11 but has been unable to convincingly muscle past the 1,333.58 level, a technical resistance point representing double the 12-year low hit on March 9, 2009.
The benchmark index was relatively flat for the week, down 0.3 percent, as the prospect of a government shutdown kept the rally at bay.
Investors braced for a possible government shutdown as the White House and Congress scrambled on Friday to break a budget impasse ahead of a midnight deadline. But analysts said that while a U.S. government shutdown, which would idle hundreds of thousands of federal workers, would be short-term negative, the market had managed to rally even ahead of the looming deadline.
"There is an intellectual concern of what it means to shut down the government and there is the uncertainty of how long does the government get shut down and how much of a (hit) do we take on GDP growth," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist, at Federated Investors, in New York.
Many traders circled short-term puts on the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY.P) as the prospect of a shutdown loomed.
Shares of the exchange-traded fund, also called the Spyders, fell 0.3 percent to $132.86 in afternoon trading on Friday. The fund's Weekly $133 puts traded more than 96,000 contracts, surpassing their open interest.
Frederic Ruffy, a strategist at WhatsTrading.com, said the positions likely reflected hedges against weakness due to fears of a shutdown.
8:04 PM
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6:03 PM
Google seals ITA deal but antitrust review looms
Addison Ray
By Diane Bartz
WASHINGTON | Fri Apr 8, 2011 8:27pm EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Justice Department approved Google Inc's purchase of ITA Software with stiff conditions on Friday, and left the door open to a larger probe into whether Google manipulates search results to hurt rivals.
The decision, which allows Google to expand into the online travel market, comes as new CEO Larry Page revamped the company's management structure in a bid to accelerate efforts in social networking, mobile and other key businesses.
The Justice Department blessed Google's $700 million deal with the ticketing software company. Google promised to license the software for five years, to continue to upgrade it, and to establish firewalls to protect ITA clients' intellectual property.
The ITA buy is part of an acquisition and hiring spree as Google aims to ensure its online services stay on top as Internet surfers go mobile and turn to services like the wildly popular Facebook.
Now, U.S. antitrust regulators will turn to the question of whether to open a formal antitrust probe into allegations that Google, the world's No. 1 Internet search engine, manipulates search results, a source told Reuters on Friday.
The Federal Trade Commission and Justice Department are both contemplating an investigation but there has been no decision made on which agency may take it up.
There has been a series of complaints made to the agencies -- many from Google rivals that specialize in searches such as price comparison websites -- that Google has made them difficult to find.
A key lawmaker has been critical of Google, and remained so on Friday. "We continue to scrutinize broader questions about the fairness of Google's search engine, and whether it preferences its own products and services to the detriment of competitors," said Sen. Herb Kohl, chairman of the Judiciary Committee's antitrust subcommittee.
The European Commission took up an antitrust probe after complaints from three small companies, one of them owned by Microsoft Corp. Microsoft filed a formal complaint against Google with the commission in Brussels last month.
Microsoft charged that Google hurt competition by "walling off" content on its YouTube site, so other search engines cannot display accurate results. It also said that Google made it hard for Microsoft's mobile phone software to show videos from YouTube, among other charges.
The Justice Department was also aware that Google had an incentive to tweak search results to favor its businesses and was keeping an eye on the issue, said a Justice Department official who requested anonymity.
"There were a variety of complaints about bias in search," the official said. "So, while we're aware of those complaints we did not think they were relevant to this (ITA) transaction."
Analysts said they believed that Google's power in search meant the company had to step carefully, and that a broader probe was a big worry.
"A lot of these new markets that they enter rely heavily on search to drive traffic," said Yun Kim, an analyst with Gleacher & Co. "That's what the government is worried about."
CONDITIONS PLACED ON GOOGLE BUY OF ITA
10:00 AM
By Chris Baltimore and Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
DALLAS/KNOXVILLE, Tennessee | Fri Apr 8, 2011 11:50am EDT
DALLAS/KNOXVILLE, Tennessee (Reuters) - Dueling views on the outlook for inflation and U.S. monetary policy by two top Federal Reserve officials on Friday underscored divisions at the central bank as it nears the end of a controversial stimulus program.
In comments that reflect the majority view at the Fed -- including Chairman Ben Bernanke -- Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said it was unlikely that recent spikes in commodity costs will lead to runaway increases in prices.
"With longer-term inflation expectations remaining stable -- and predicting that commodity price growth will stabilize -- my view is that current monetary policy is appropriate," Lockhart told the Knoxville Economics Club in Tennessee.
Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed and a self-proclaimed inflation hawk, took a divergent view, saying that prolonged easy monetary policy could compound what might otherwise be transitory inflationary pressures.
Warning of "unpleasant" U.S. inflation data ahead, Fisher called on the U.S. central bank to stop "spiking the punch bowl" with more accommodative policy and said the Fed may even need to end its $600 billion bond-buying program early.
"No amount of further accommodation by the Fed would be wise," he told the Society of American Business Editors and Writers in Dallas. "Indeed, it may well be that we should consider curtailing what remains of QE2," he said, referring to the Fed's second round of quantitative easing, which is slated to end in June.
The prices of oil and other commodities have spiked, sparking inflation fears, hit by both strong demand from rapidly growing emerging economies and fears of supply disruptions amid a wave of pro-democracy protests in the Middle East and North Africa.
U.S. crude has been trading at the highest prices since September 2008, rising above $110 a barrel, and the average price of gasoline stands around $3.70 a gallon.
But Lockhart said that while costly fuel is putting a dent in household budgets, the overall effect on inflation is likely to be muted.
In part that's because high unemployment -- at 8.8 percent in March -- is keeping wage-driven inflation under wraps, he said.
Conceding that point as "reasonable," Fisher -- who holds a voting seat this year on the Fed's policy-setting panel -- nevertheless said the Fed should not compound the risk of fueling inflation by adding more liquidity.
Several other hawkish Fed policy makers have pushed noisily in recent weeks for the central bank to heed signs of incipient inflation and to begin to think about raising rates, as the European Central Bank did on Thursday for the first time since 2008.
But Bernanke and other core members of the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee have said the recovery is too fragile to withdraw support yet.
Given the still-fragile nature of the recovery, Lockhart said Fed officials should avoid discussing their exit strategy in too great detail, lest they send the wrong signal to the public and financial markets about the direction of interest rates.
In response to the deepest recession in generations, the Fed slashed interest rates to near zero and also committed to buy more than $2 trillion in government bonds and mortgage debt.
U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 3.1 percent the fourth quarter, a rebound which is less robust than normally seen after a steep downturn.
(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa in Knoxville Tenn., Chris Baltimore in Dallas, Ann Saphir in Chicago; Editing by Leslie Adler)