11:35 PM
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10:00 PM
By Al Yoon and Alina Selyukh
NEW YORK | Wed Dec 15, 2010 12:24am EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks eked out gains and U.S. Treasuries prices slumped on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve showed no signs of curtailing its economic stimulus measures and U.S. retail sales data signaled an accelerating economic recovery.
The dollar edged higher against the euro and the yen after the Fed modestly upgraded its evaluation of the U.S. economic recovery and reaffirmed its commitment to purchase $600 billion in government bonds to boost the economy.
"The economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment," the Fed said in a statement at the conclusion of a one-day meeting.
The Dow Jones industrial average touched a more than two-year high, and world stocks inched closer to overall two-year highs. Benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year yields hit their highest levels in since May on signs of accelerating economic growth.
The government on Tuesday reported that U.S. retail sales rose for a fifth straight month, and the producer price index, a measure of business costs, increased more than expected, seen as a positive sign of demand.
"I'm slightly disappointed that the (Fed) doesn't see the world in the same light that investors do," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Connecticut.
"The Fed continues to say that the outlook for employment and spending isn't as strong as the market perceives it."
Investors also kept their sights on a deal worked out between U.S. President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers to extend tax cuts, jobless benefits and a payroll tax credit, which is expected to also boost the economy.
Wall Street did temporarily turn negative, weighed by declining bank shares after the Fed statement as hurt by a plunge in the stock of Best Buy Inc (BBY.N), the top U.S. electronics retailer that is seen a bellwether in consumer electronics. Best Buy shares fell 15 percent after it reported a drop in quarterly profit and sales and cut its full-year outlook, citing weak demand in its key U.S. market.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 47.98 points, or 0.42 percent, at 11,476.54. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 1.13 points, or 0.09 percent, at 1,241.59. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 2.81 points, or 0.11 percent, at 2,627.72.
The S&P 500 index is up 6 percent since November 29.
U.S. Treasuries extended losses after the Fed statement, adding to a sharp sell-off as the tax deal sparked concern over faster growth and a widening federal budget gap. U.S. Treasury 10-year yields, which influence consumer and corporate borrowing costs, rose to 3.44 percent from 3.28 percent late Monday.
GLOBAL OPTIMISM
European shares closed higher for a seventh straight session, reversing early losses after the U.S. retail sales data reinforced optimism about the pace of economic recovery. The FTSEurofirst 300 Index .FTEU3 finished up 0.3 percent in thin volume.
The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS edged up 0.24 percent, nudging closer to a two-year high set in November. The Thomson Reuters global stock index .TRXFLDGLPU rose 0.4 percent, and emerging stocks .MSCIEF added 0.6 percent.
5:16 PM
Fed cautious on recovery, sticks to bond plan
Addison Ray
By Mark Felsenthal and Pedro da Costa
WASHINGTON | Tue Dec 14, 2010 7:05pm EST
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Tuesday offered only a cautious nod to the economy's improving prospects as it put a spotlight on lofty unemployment and reaffirmed its commitment to buy $600 billion in bonds.
In a statement that emphasized job market weakness and low inflation, the Fed characterized the U.S. expansion as "continuing," a modest upgrade from its November description of the recovery as "slow."
"The economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment," the Fed said in a statement at the conclusion of a one-day meeting.
The sober assessment stood in contrast to increasingly optimistic forecasts on Wall Street, where analysts have been revising economic projections based on a slew of stronger-than-expected data and a new government tax cut plan.
As widely expected, the Fed offered no policy shift. It held overnight interest rates near zero, repeated a vow to keep rates exceptionally low for an extended period and renewed its pledge to buy about $75 billion worth of bonds a month to hold down long-term interest rates.
"What I think the Fed is trying to do is kick the can, so to speak, until their January 2011 meeting," said Joe Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago.
The dollar edged up against the euro and the yen as the Fed offered no sign of expanding its bond buying, but Treasury bonds extended losses on the central bank's dovish remarks.
On Wall Street, stocks were little changed after the statement and ended the day modestly higher.
GLOOMY OUTLOOK, DEFLATION CONCERNS
While offering a tempered acknowledgment of the apparent strengthening in the economy, the Fed maintained its focus on the two principle areas it is trying address: high unemployment and a slowing in already low inflation.
"The Fed continues to say that the outlook for employment and spending isn't as strong as the market perceives it," said Andrew Wilkinson, a senior market analyst for Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Analysts also noted the omission of any mention of a sharp spike in bond yields that threatens to thwart the Fed's campaign to lower borrowing costs. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury are at highs not seen since May.
"Playing ostrich?" wondered UBS economist Maury Harris.
The Fed launched its program to buy longer-term Treasury securities early last month to support a weak economic recovery that was failing to generate jobs.
The Fed had already bought $1.7 trillion in longer-term assets from late 2008 through the beginning of this year in a bid to boost the economy after it had cut short-term interest rates to near zero.
4:57 PM
Japan business mood worsens and gloom to persist
Addison Ray
By Leika Kihara and Rie Ishiguro
TOKYO | Tue Dec 14, 2010 7:33pm EST
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese manufacturers' business sentiment worsened for the first time in nearly two years this quarter, a Bank of Japan survey showed, as they felt the pinch from a strong yen and slowing overseas growth.
The decline in business confidence was less than expected. But big manufacturers also expect conditions to deteriorate over the next three months, the closely watched tankan survey showed on Wednesday, boding ill for the fragile economy and keeping up pressure on the BOJ to maintain interest rates near zero.
BOJ policymakers are expected to scrutinize the survey at their rate review next week, although the central bank is seen holding off on easing monetary policy further after having taken action in October.
"The outlook for big firms and manufacturers felt a little weak," said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist, Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.
"The BOJ is likely to stick with its current status for a while ... Rather than economic indexes, the trigger (for further easing) is likely to come from the market, such as stocks falling greatly or the yen strengthening even more due to overseas events."
MURKY OUTLOOK
The headline index measuring big manufacturers' sentiment fell to plus 5 from plus 8 in September, marking the first decline in seven quarters. But it was higher than a median market forecast of plus 3.
The index for March next year was seen at minus 2, showing that the murky economic outlook was making companies even more cautious about business conditions in the coming three months.
That may hurt corporate capital spending, which is holding up relatively well for now.
Big firms plan to increase capital spending by 2.9 percent in the year to March 2011, slightly more than a median forecast for a 2.7 percent rise and recovering from a 15.5 percent decline in the year ended in March.
Japan's economy is expected to have contracted slightly in the final quarter of this year on slowing overseas growth and slumping factory output after the September expiry of government incentives for purchases of low-emission cars dented demand.
Analysts expect the country's economic growth to pick up early next year with support from exports to fast-growing Asia, but only modestly.
The BOJ has pledged to keep interest rates effectively at zero until the end of deflation is in sight and rolled out a 5 trillion yen ($60 billion) pool of funds to buy assets ranging from government bonds to corporate debt.
The central bank has said topping up the fund is a strong option if the economy worsens more than expected but it does not want to do so too soon.
The tankan's sentiment indexes are derived by subtracting the percentage of respondents who say conditions are poor from those who say they are good. Positive readings mean optimists outnumber pessimists.
(Editing by Edmund Klamann)
3:20 PM
Lions Gate holders elect board, defeat Icahn
Addison Ray
By Sue Zeidler and Alex Dobuzinskis
LOS ANGELES | Tue Dec 14, 2010 5:20pm EST
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Lions Gate Entertainment Corp shareholders voted for all 12 of the company's board nominees in a victory against hostile suitor Carl Icahn, who had proposed a dissident slate.
The vote signaled the latest win and a potentially fatal blow against Icahn in Lions Gate's long and costly war with the billionaire shareholder, who launched a hostile $7.50-a-share bid and for years has criticized the management of the studio that makes "Mad Men."
Lions Gate shares closed down 6.3 percent at $6.64 a share on the New York Stock Exchange.
Analysts said the stock fell on selling by investors who had bet on Icahn succeeding. "The merger arbs (arbitrage investors) are probably unwinding on what looks like the end of the Icahn saga," said David Bank, analyst with RBC Capital.
But Icahn is not going away altogether, even though he has abandoned his tender offer. As long as he retains his 33 percent stake, Lions Gate's largest and most vocal shareholder is likely to keep pressuring the studio to cut costs and raise its stock price, pursue litigation against it and advocate for a merger between Lions Gate and storied studio Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, the focus of more legal wrangling between Lions Gate and Icahn.
"We are disappointed that shareholder democracy has failed -- or rather was subverted -- in the case of Lions Gate's annual meeting," said Icahn in a statement referring to a controversial debt-for-equity swap in July that effectively diluted his stake to 33 percent from 38 percent, hurting his chances in the proxy contest.
Icahn is seeking to unwind the swap; but Lions Gate last week gained an advantage when a New York judge denied Icahn's motion for an injunction to block Mark Rachesky, the company's second-largest shareholder, from voting shares he received in the transaction.
Icahn admitted on Monday it would be "virtually impossible" to win board seats after the court ruling but reiterated on Tuesday he was pleased there will be a full trial on the issue in the next few months, requiring Lions Gate to hold another shareholder meeting in September.
One of Icahn's nominees, Daniel Ninivaggi, was at Lions Gate's annual meeting and vowed to keep up the fight.
"We believe the vote is the direct result of bad corporate governance," Ninivaggi told Reuters.
Icahn announced he would not buy any shares tendered in his offer, which expired on Monday, because the bid had been conditioned upon receipt of the injunction.
Icahn is also expected to keep pushing for a merger with MGM, but Lions Gate said that for now it was not interested.
"We have said publicly that we were interested (in MGM) at one time, but for the moment that ship has sailed," said Michael Burns, vice chairman of Lions Gate, when asked whether the company would like to pursue a merger with MGM, which is expected to emerge from bankruptcy shortly.
In October, Lions Gate accused Icahn of secretly plotting to merge the two studios, but only after he acquired large stakes in both companies at depressed prices to ensure he maximized his own profits.
Earlier this month, MGM's reorganization plan won court approval, clearing the way for the studio to emerge from bankruptcy, and sources have said they expect the two studios to explore a merger.
(Editing by Gerald E. McCormick and Matthew Lewis)
12:35 PM
Fed keeps policy on hold, says recovery too slow
Addison Ray
By Mark Felsenthal and Pedro da Costa
WASHINGTON | Tue Dec 14, 2010 2:51pm EST
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Tuesday the economic recovery was still too slow to bring down unemployment, reaffirming its commitment to purchase $600 billion in bonds to stimulate growth and create jobs.
In a statement that contained little acknowledgment of a recent uptick in the economic data but focused squarely on high unemployment, the Fed characterized the U.S. expansion as "continuing," a modest upgrade from its November description of the recovery as "slow."
While the meeting likely involved some reevaluation of the economic outlook to account for the effects of a proposed extension of tax cuts, the Fed noted measures of underlying inflation had continued to trend lower since its last meeting.
"The economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment," the Fed said in a statement at the conclusion of a one-day meeting.
Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig again dissented against the move.
The Fed's steady emphasis on economic weakness surprised some analysts who expected clearer acknowledgment of recent signs the recovery has gained momentum.
"Fed continues to say that the outlook for employment and spending isn't as strong as the market perceives it," said Andrew Wilkinson, a senior market analyst for Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Connecticut.
The dollar fell against major currencies and Treasuries extended losses on the announcement, which suggested the Fed has little inclination to waver from its bond-buying program. Stocks were little changed.
Early last month, the Fed launched a controversial program to buy $600 billion in longer-term Treasury securities by the middle of next year to support a weak economic recovery that was failing to generate jobs.
Called QE2 because it is the Fed's second round of so-called quantitative easing through asset purchases, the initiative was assailed by critics concerned it could trigger inflation or set off a round of competitive currency devaluations by weakening the dollar.
Since the central bank launched the program, data on the economy has turned brighter. Strong November retail sales data on Tuesday added to evidence the recovery is gaining strength.
In addition, a deal between the White House and congressional Republicans to extend Bush-era income tax cuts included a surprise reduction in payroll taxes, which would provide an unexpected boost for the economy. Some forecasters said the deal could lift growth next year by as much as a full percentage point.
Policymakers are also likely to have pondered a spike in longer-term interest rates, a development that runs counter to the Fed's intended goal for the asset purchases, which are aimed at lowering borrowing costs. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury are at highs not seen since May.
It is difficult to gauge, however, how much of that rise is due to political criticism from of QE2, which may have led investors to question the Fed's appetite for sticking with the easing program, how much is due to worries about inflation and the massive U.S. debt, and how much can be pinned to expectations of stronger growth.
Despite signs the recovery may be picking up steam, the unemployment has hovered near a lofty 10 percent for months and core inflation has been running at record lows.
12:13 PM
Traders see Fed hike in Nov 2011
Addison Ray
Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.
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7:40 AM
Retail sales boost growth prospects
Addison Ray
WASHINGTON | Tue Dec 14, 2010 9:40am EST
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Retail sales were stronger than expected in November as consumers stepped up despite the shadow of high unemployment, while producer prices rose, offering further evidence the economic recovery gathered steam in the fourth quarter.
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday total retail sales increased 0.8 percent, advancing for a fifth straight month, as consumers snapped up clothing and other items at the start of the holiday season and receipts at gasoline stations surged.
Sales for October were revised up to 1.7 percent from a previously reported 1.2 percent gain. Economists polled by Reuters had expected retail sales to increase 0.6 percent last month. Compared to November last year sales were up 7.7 percent.
Separately, producer prices increased 0.8 percent last month, the Labor Department said, above forecasts for a 0.6 percent gain. Core wholesale prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3 percent.
"Based on this (retail sales) report we have upwardly revised our Q4 personal consumer spending numbers. ... The hand-off to 2011 looks very promising," said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.
U.S. stock index futures slightly added to gains after the data. U.S. government debt prices extended losses, while the dollar pared losses against the yen.
Excluding autos, sales rose 1.2 percent last month, the largest gain since March and exceeding economists' expectations for a 0.6 percent gain. Sales excluding autos increased 0.8 percent in October.
The data was the latest to imply an acceleration in economic growth during the current quarter after output expanded at a 2.5 percent annual pace in the July-September period.
However, it will probably not be strong enough to discourage the Federal Reserve from completing its $600 billion government debt buying program intended push already low interest rates further down and stimulate demand.
Policymakers from the U.S. central bank meet on Tuesday to assess the economy and are widely expected to stay the course of accommodative monetary policy.
Sales last month were buoyed by a 2.7 percent rise in receipts at clothing and clothing accessories stores, the largest increase since March.
Consumers also spent on non-essential goods, lifting sales at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores 2.3 percent, the biggest gain in almost a year.
Sales were also boosted by a 4 percent jump in receipts at gasoline stations, which was the largest gain in a year. But motor vehicle sales surprisingly fell 0.8 percent, while building materials dipped 0.1 percent after rising 3.3 percent in October.
Core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline and building materials, rose 0.9 percent after a 0.5 percent gain in October.
Core sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of the government's gross domestic product report. Spending, which accounts for 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, increased at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
But there were some weak spots in the retail sales report. Purchases at electronics and appliance stores fell 0.6 percent last month and furniture sales declined 0.5 percent.
Top consumer electronics chain Best Buy Co Inc reported a decline in quarterly results and same-store sales and cut its full-year outlook, citing weak demand in its key U.S. market.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Neil Stempleman)
7:18 AM
Fed seen in holding pattern, to assess easing
Addison Ray
By Mark Felsenthal
WASHINGTON | Tue Dec 14, 2010 9:19am EST
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is expected to stay in a holding pattern on Tuesday as top policy officials evaluate the recent launch of a massive bond-buying program to boost the U.S. economy and how fresh fiscal stimulus might help do the job for them.
The last scheduled meeting of Fed policymakers in 2010 got under way at 8:30 a.m. (1330 GMT) as scheduled, a Fed spokesman said. A statement is expected at about 2:15 p.m.
The meeting follows a dramatic rise in yields on Treasury bonds, something the central bank probably had not expected to see so soon after launching the latest stimulus. But they are unlikely to show any signs of scaling it back.
Fed officials will likely be revising their economic outlook to reflect stronger growth after the White House and congressional Republicans agreed to extend tax breaks and provide a payroll tax cut, effectively delivering fresh fiscal stimulus.
"The continuing recovery in the economy and the likelihood of a tax deal could be recognized with somewhat more enthusiastic language about growth," said UBS economist Maury Harris in New York, "Although the recent run-up in interest rates could offset some of the positive growth impact of the still-debated tax deal."
The Fed's announcement in November that it would launch purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasuries, although it had been telegraphed for months, came under attack from critics who charged the Fed with instigating competitive currency devaluations by weakening the dollar and potentially creating an inflationary monster.
With benchmark short-term interest rates near zero, one intended impact of the bond-buying program -- referred to as QE2 because it is the second round of quantitative easing -- was to lower longer-term borrowing costs. However policymakers will ponder why rates for the benchmark 10-year Treasury note have surged in recent weeks.
Some at the Fed believe rates jumped partly in response to the unusually strong attacks on the bond buying by Republican lawmakers, whose star is in the ascendant after electoral gains that won them control of the House of Representatives.
Fed officials guard their political independence jealously and have made clear they will do whatever is necessary to fulfill their mandate of both fighting inflation and maintaining full employment. However, there will undoubtedly be a vigorous debate among policymakers about whether the Treasury sell-off reflects nervousness about the exploding debt and Washington's future credit-worthiness and future inflation, or whether investors are anticipating a return to stronger growth in months to come.
"It is plain that a substantial element of the market believes that the resumption of QE poses a real inflation threat," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York. "QE just makes many investors nervous."
Some economists have estimated the tax cut deal could boost growth in 2011 by a full percentage point. The deal cleared its first hurdle in Congress on Monday and could be approved by both chambers of Congress by the end of the week.
"The realization of above-trend growth in the first half of the year will remove some of the urgency felt last summer to give the economy a shot of adrenaline," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Chase in New York.
Economic data has also shown glimmers of improvement, with November consumer sentiment hitting its highest level since June and recent declines in the number of workers filing for unemployment insurance.
However, the job market remains grim as unemployment rose to a lofty 9.8 percent in November, while core inflation was at a record low in October.
Higher longer-term rates may also deal yet another set-back to battered housing markets.
6:58 AM
European shares pare losses on upbeat U.S. data
Addison Ray
Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.
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2:04 AM
Yahoo to lay off more than 600 staffers: sources
Addison Ray
Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.
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