9:08 AM

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IMF cuts U.S. growth forecast, warns of crisis

Addison Ray

SAO PAULO | Fri Jun 17, 2011 9:25am EDT

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for U.S. economic growth on Friday and warned Washington and debt-ridden European countries that they are "playing with fire" unless they take immediate steps to reduce their budget deficits.

The IMF, in its regular assessment of global economic prospects, said that bigger threats to growth had emerged since its previous report in April, citing the euro zone debt crisis and signs of overheating in emerging market economies.

The global lender forecast that U.S. gross domestic product would grow an anemic 2.5 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2012. In its forecast just two months ago, it had expected 2.8 percent and 2.9 percent growth, respectively.

The outlook elsewhere was mixed. The IMF said it was slightly more optimistic about the euro area's growth prospects this year, but a lack of political leadership in dealing with that crisis and the budget showdown in the United States could create major financial volatility in coming months.

"You cannot afford to have a world economy where these important decisions are postponed because you're really playing with fire," said Jose Vinals, director of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department.

"We have now entered very clearly into a new phase of the (global) crisis, which is, I would say, the political phase of the crisis," he said in an interview in Sao Paulo, where the forecast was published.

In the United States, the political problems include a fight over raising the debt ceiling. Fears that the world's biggest economy could default, even briefly, have rattled markets, with Fitch Ratings saying even a "technical" default would jeopardize the country's AAA rating.

Meanwhile, Greece has edged closer to default as euro zone officials disagree on a possible second aid package for the indebted country. With strikes and protests around the country, political turmoil has added to uncertainty, stoking fears that the government will not be able to tighten its belt enough to reduce crippling deficits.

"If you make a list of the countries in the world that have the biggest homework in restoring their public finances to a reasonable situation in terms of debt levels, you find four countries: Greece, Ireland, Japan and the United States," Vinals said.

EMERGING MARKETS OVERHEATING?

Fears of contagion in the euro zone have driven global markets lower in recent sessions, with other vulnerable countries such as Ireland and Portugal feeling pressured.

The IMF raised its growth view for the euro area in 2011 to 2 percent from 1.6 percent. For 2012, the IMF saw growth at 1.7 percent, nearly stable from its previous 1.8 percent.

It raised its forecast for Germany, the powerhouse of the euro zone, to 3.2 percent from 2.5 percent, with growth moderating to 2 percent in 2012.

Forecasts for large emerging markets remained stable or slipped. While China's GDP view stayed at 9.6 percent this year, the IMF lowered its forecast for Brazil to 4.1 percent from 4.5 percent in April.

Those countries, along with Russia, India and South Africa, make up the fast-growing BRICS, a group of emerging economies whose brisk expansion has outstripped that of developed markets recently.

Robust growth has caused emerging economies to tighten monetary policy, with higher interest rates and reserve requirements, even as many developed nations keep policy ultra-loose to try to boost anemic growth.

The IMF warned that many emerging markets still need more tightening. In China, for example, the high inflation rate means negative real interest rates.

Some emerging markets have been reluctant to tighten too far, fearful of derailing growth or attracting speculative flows that could pressure currencies ever higher.

(Editing by Brian Winter and Leslie Adler)



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6:28 AM

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Stock futures jump after Sarkozy comments on Greece

Addison Ray

NEW YORK | Fri Jun 17, 2011 7:33am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures rose sharply on Friday after French President Nicolas Sarkozy hinted at a deal to resolve the Greek debt crisis that has hampered equities and worried investors over a possible credit dry-up.

Sarkozy said "there was no time to lose" on agreeing on a program for Greece, suggesting a deal needed to be reached in July at the latest.

"We want to go as quickly as possible without fixing a date," Sarkozy said after meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, adding that the pair had the same position on Greece.

Analysts saw his comments as a balm for spooked investors. "After a couple of volatile sessions earlier this week, the market is taking Sarkozy's words as comfort and that is translating into a rebound this morning," said Andre Bakhos, director of market analytics at Lek Securities in New York.

"With the Greek situation being a key focal point, sensitivities run high and investors are quick to react."

The euro reversed its recent trend to gain more than 0.5 percent against the U.S. dollar, and European equities turned positive for the day after Sarkozy's statement. The FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 rose 0.5 percent in morning trade.

S&P 500 futures rose 10.7 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration of the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures gained 90 points and Nasdaq 100 futures added 15.75 points.

Economic data on tap includes the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers preliminary June consumer sentiment index, due at 9:55 a.m. EDT. Economists in a Reuters survey expect a reading of 74.0 compared with 74.3 in the final May report.

"Economically, on the home front data has been weaker than expected and investors are looking for positive numbers to reverse that trend," Bakhos said. "Until then, there will be hesitancy to go into the market."

Shares of Research In Motion Ltd (RIM.TO)(RIMM.O) tumbled 15.3 percent to $29.91 in premarket trading after the BlackBerry maker posted a drop in quarterly profit and forecast current-quarter earnings sharply below already pessimistic estimates.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; additional reporting by European bureaus; editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)



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6:08 AM

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SEC could file civil fraud charges against some raters

Addison Ray

Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.



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1:37 AM

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Capital One to buy ING's U.S. online bank for $9 billion

Addison Ray

CHARLOTTE, N.C./NEW YORK | Fri Jun 17, 2011 1:38am EDT

CHARLOTTE, N.C./NEW YORK (Reuters) - Capital One Financial Corp plans to buy ING Groep NV's U.S. online bank for $9 billion in cash and stock, leapfrogging up the ranks of the largest U.S. banks, the companies said on Thursday afternoon.

The McLean, Virginia-based bank, best known for its credit card unit, will pay $6.2 billion in cash and $2.8 billion in stock.

That will help ING, a Dutch banking and insurance conglomerate in the middle of a breakup, repay the remainder of the money it owes to the Dutch government for a 2008 bailout. The company also will receive a 9.9 percent stake in Capital One as part of the deal and will have the right to name a director to the U.S. bank's board.

The deal is the latest step in Capital One's efforts to transform itself from its credit card lending roots. Adding ING Direct USA's assets would bump Capital One up two places in the rankings to make it the nation's seventh-largest bank by assets, according to SNL Financial, a financial services data firm.

"Capital One is picking up market share at what they feel are reasonable rates," said Matt McCormick, portfolio manager with Bahl & Gaynor Investment Counsel. "They're thinking that now's the time to pick up market share by acquisition. It's a risk, but it's a calculated risk."

The U.S. bank will raise $2 billion in new capital and will offer debt of about $3.7 billion to help finance the deal, which is expected to close around the end of the year.

The Wall Street Journal had earlier reported the deal on Thursday.

According to SNL Financial, ING Direct USA is the 20th-largest U.S. bank. As of March 31, Capital One had $199.3 billion of assets.

EARLY REPAYMENT

ING has been restructuring since receiving a 10 billion euro bailout from the Dutch government in 2008. The European Commission and ING agreed on a restructuring plan in late 2009. The most surprising part of the plan was a mandate that ING sell its U.S. online banking operations.

ING had to reduce the size of its balance sheet dramatically, which forced the company to shed many assets, including its insurance operations and its Dutch mortgage business.

Last month ING paid 3 billion euros to the Dutch state, which included a 50 percent premium, and said at the time that it would repay the remaining 3 billion euros by May 2012. But with the proceeds from selling its U.S. unit to Capital One, ING could repay the remainder much sooner.

Early repayment is an important step for the company: once free of its state restrictions, a European ban on acquisitions will be lifted and ING will have more pricing flexibility, allowing it to compete more easily.

Capital One said it expects to realize "modest" cost-savings of $90 million from the deal, and funding savings of $200 million annually. It said the deal would be accretive to earnings per share in 2012 and would result in "mid-single digit accretion" in 2013.

Shares of Capital One closed up 2.4 percent at $49 on Thursday.

Morgan Stanley, Barclays Capital and Centerview Partners LLC acted as financial advisers to Capital One and Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen and Katz, Mayer Brown and Loyens & Loeff acted as legal advisers. Deutsche Bank advised ING.

(Additional reporting by Ben Berkowitz in NEW YORK and Sara Webb in AMSTERDAM; editing by Bernard Orr, Carol Bishopric and Muralikumar Anantharaman)



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