9:03 PM

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Germany's Merkel faces biggest test in euro vote

Addison Ray

BERLIN | Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:37pm EDT

BERLIN (Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a battle for her political survival on Thursday when some of her coalition, worried about throwing good money after bad by bailing out Greece, could humiliate her in a parliament vote on euro-zone rescue schemes.

Support from the center-left opposition will ensure Germany passes the bill on new powers for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which some countries like Finland have ratified but others, including Slovakia, are disputing.

But if dissent in her coalition forces Merkel to rely on opposition votes to pass the new powers for the 440 billion euro ($600 billion) rescue fund, it would be politically damaging for the conservative chancellor.

Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and their allies were pressuring the handful of dissidents to get in line before the vote at 11 a.m. (4 a.m. EDT). It should be clear about half an hour after that the EFSF has been passed, but word on how many government lawmakers rebelled could take another hour.

"We are working to convince people," CDU second-in-command Hermann Groehe told Reuters. He said "it will be close" but the government would not put itself in the humiliating position of depending on the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens.

Merkel tried to assure her coalition that German taxpayers' money would not be wasted by voting a new bailout for Athens -- but she could not rule out that the money might be written off if, as financial markets increasingly fear, Greece defaults.

Merkel often is accused in Europe and at home of dithering on the euro crisis and if she does not win the EFSF vote on her own terms, it would damage her hopes of taking the conservative bloc she has led for 11 years into the next elections in 2013.

International auditors return to Athens on Thursday to deliver their verdict on whether Greece's tougher austerity measures quality for further aid.

The chancellor has told Greece she wants to wait for the results of an audit by the "troika" of the European Union, European Central Bank and IMF to see whether its findings "tell us we will have to renegotiate or not."

Such talk by Merkel and other German officials may refer to raising the level of private creditor involvement in the Greek bailout, by getting them to accept bigger potential losses -- or "haircuts" -- on their Greek sovereign bond investments.

Senior coalition figures like Economy Minister Philipp Roesler, head of Merkel's Free Democrat (FDP) partners, have already said an "orderly" Greek default should not be taboo.

With a core of naysayers in the CDU, its Bavarian allies the CSU and the FDP, the vote will be scrutinized to see how close she gets to a convincing 311 'yes' votes from her own bloc in the 620-seat Bundestag.

If there are more than 19 rebels, Merkel will have passed the EFSF thanks to the center-left opposition and may have to rethink how to address growing discontent among her supporters and the population at large about the euro zone debt crisis.

Sentiment remains passionately divided in Germany. Even though labor unions called on MPs to back the measure, the conservatives' "Mittelstands und Wirtschaftsvereinigung" (MIT) (small business alliance) urged MPs to vote 'no' on Thursday.

In a statement, the MIT said: "In respect for the free decision of every MP" it expresses its solidarity for the rebels in Merkel's coalition. "It is personally a difficult decision but politically the correct one," the statement said.

The SPD and Greens have won a run of state elections this year and, with two more votes in coming months on the second Greek bailout and a permanent mechanism to succeed the EFSF, can portray themselves as defenders of the single currency.

($1=0.735 euros)

(Additional reporting by Andreas Rinke; Writing by Stephen Brown; Editing by Michael Roddy)



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7:51 PM

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Commodities slide, asian stocks fall on euro crisis

Addison Ray

SINGAPORE | Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:45pm EDT

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian shares and commodities fell on Thursday on growing worries that Europe's intractable debt problems will plunge the world economy into a second global financial crisis.

Copper fell below $7,000 a tonne, gold slipped below $1,600 an ounce to stand more than $300 below its record high earlier this month, and commodities-related stocks were dumped.

The past week has seen a broad selloff of commodities, equities and emerging markets bonds and a rally in the dollar that has been reminiscent of the rout surrounding the collapse of Lehman Brothers investment bank three years ago.

"Due to the high degree of uncertainty about the European situation and its effects on economic growth, there were anxious market moves in the U.S., and we will see similar moves today," said Yutaka Miura, senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities.

Tokyo's Nikkei share average fell 0.9 percent, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1 percent, with its materials sub-index shedding more than 2 percent.

S&P 500 index futures were mildly negative, after Wall Street's broad benchmark dropped 2.1 percent on Wednesday.

The latest source of nervousness was a vote in Germany's parliament at 0900 GMT on Thursday to approve new powers for the euro zone's 440 billion euro ($598 billion) rescue fund.

Whilst opposition votes will ensure the bill passes, a big rebellion within Chancellor Angela Merkel's own center-right coalition could weaken her politically and cloud future policy making at a time when financial markets and other nations are urging euro zone leaders to act boldly and decisively.

The euro was little changed around $1.3540, while the dollar rose 0.3 percent against a basket of currencies.

"You would suspect weakness until Germany votes, given that it is the big guy that has to fund it," said Gavin Stacey, head of Australia and New Zealand research at Barclays Capital.

"The euro is most likely to continue its trend deterioration until it gets really bad, forcing a resolution to come."

As the commodities rout continued, gold fell 0.7 percent to around $1,596 an ounce and copper, which is highly sensitive to expectations for global growth, fell 4.9 percent to $6,898 a tonne.

U.S. crude oil futures fell 1.3 percent to $80.17 a barrel and Brent crude lost 0.8 percent to $103. ($1 = 0.735 Euros)

(Editing by Yoko Nishikawa)



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7:32 PM

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Bernanke says Fed would act if inflation falls

Addison Ray

CLEVELAND | Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:19pm EDT

CLEVELAND (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday the central bank might need to ease monetary policy further if inflation or inflation expectations fall significantly.

In his first public remarks since the Fed launched a fresh measure aimed at keeping down long-term borrowing costs, Bernanke indicated a willingness to push deeper into the realm of unconventional policy if economic growth remains anemic.

"It is something that we're going to be watching very carefully," Bernanke said in response to questions from the audience at a forum sponsored by the Cleveland Fed.

"If inflation falls too low or inflation expectations fall too low, that would be something we have to respond to because we do not want deflation," Bernanke said.

The comment was made in response to a question about a recent decline in market-based inflation expectations, which policymakers see as a good gauge of future inflation trends.

The gap between yields on 10-year Treasury notes and their inflation-protected counterparts fell to 1.70 percent last week, the lowest since September 2010. It has edged up slightly since then and last stood at 1.86 percent.

In an effort to stanch the deepest recession in generations and help the recovery, the Fed not only slashed benchmark interest rates to effectively zero, but also more than tripled its balance sheet to around $2.9 trillion.

Despite these measures, growth has remained quite soft, averaging less than 1 percent on an annual basis in the first half of the year. Bernanke signaled he remains concerned about risks to the economy, which the Fed described as "significant" in its September policy statement.

"We have a lot of problems both in terms of recovery and in terms of longer-term growth," he said.

A TWIST ON HOUSING

Last week, the Fed said it will sell $400 billion in short-term Treasury securities and invest them into longer-dated ones to try to put downward pressure on borrowing costs over a longer period.

Investors have dubbed the program Operation Twist after a similar measure undertaken by the Fed in the 1960s. The central bank will also renew its help to the housing finance sector by reinvesting maturing mortgage bonds in its portfolio back into that market.

Bernanke called for the U.S. government to beef up its assistance to the ailing housing sector, the epicenter of the 2008 financial meltdown.

"Some strong housing policies to help the housing market recovery would clearly be very useful and would allow the monetary policy actions of the Fed ... to have more effect and to help the economy recovery more strongly," Bernanke said.

Asked about the fate of fallen mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Bernanke reiterated his view that the mortgage market remains too weak to allow the government to try to privatize the government-sponsored entities.

The Fed's latest monetary easing did not have unanimous support within the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy.

Three regional central bank presidents dissented against the move. Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, who does not have a vote on the committee this year but has been a vocal opponent of the Fed's unconventional policies, took a parting shot at the central bank's actions on Wednesday.

"When you encourage consumption by inhibiting your interest rates from rising to their equilibrium level, you will in fact buy problems, and we have, in fact, bought problems," said Hoenig, who is due to retire on October 1, in his last speech in office.

(Reporting by Kim Palmer, Pedro da Costa and David Lawder in Washington; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)



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11:52 AM

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UAW OKs GM deal

Addison Ray

DETROIT | Wed Sep 28, 2011 2:16pm EDT

DETROIT (Reuters) - Workers represented by the United Auto Workers union approved a four-year labor contract with General Motors Co on Wednesday, the first such deal for the top U.S. automaker since its 2009 bankruptcy.

Ratification of the GM deal, which covers 48,500 hourly workers, clears the way for the union to complete talks with the automaker's crosstown rival, Ford Motor Co.

The deal adds or saves more than 6,000 U.S. factory jobs, raises wages for entry-level employees and pays each worker at least $11,500 in bonuses over the four years, the union said. The union also estimated the deal would create another 57,600 jobs at suppliers and other auto-related businesses.

"When GM was struggling, UAW members shared deeply in the sacrifice," UAW President Bob King said in a statement. "The UAW has shown that we are totally committed to helping the U.S. auto companies succeed. GM is prosperous today because of its workers."

The UAW and Ford could reach a deal on a proposed contract as soon as this week. Workers at Ford have pressed for a richer deal because of the No. 2 U.S. automaker's faster turnaround and ability to have avoided the bailouts needed at GM and Chrysler.

The UAW said 65 percent of production workers voted in favor of the deal, while 63 percent of skilled trades workers also backed it.

GM executives have set a conference call with Wall Street analysts for Wednesday afternoon to explain the financial implications of the contract for the first time.

The new UAW contract leaves GM's break-even point unchanged and allows the automaker to tackle the risk of its underfunded pension plan, one of the few issues left unaddressed by the restructuring directed by the Obama administration.

"When we went into this labor negotiation, we were very focused on that," GM Chief Executive Officer Dan Akerson told a conference in New York on Tuesday. "We could not do anything to negatively bias our break-even point."

King joined the Ford talks this week, and the focus shifted to the tough issues of compensation and additional jobs.

The union began an intense focus on Ford last week, a day after failing to finalize a deal with Chrysler Group LLC. It has extended its contract with the Fiat SpA-controlled automaker until October 19.

CHRYSLER TALKS

While UAW officials in the Ford talks said on Monday they expected "to have good news for our membership by the end of the week," discussions at Chrysler, the smallest and most fragile of the Detroit automakers, are progressing much more slowly. Those talks continued on Wednesday, a Chrysler spokeswoman said.

Chrysler, which nearly collapsed two years ago, is still executing its own financial turnaround and trying to change public perceptions of its vehicle lineup. The company emerged from bankruptcy protection with a debt load that included $7.6 billion in government loans.

In May, Chrysler repaid those loans through a refinancing that helped cut its interest payments, but effectively swapped government loans with private ones.

As a result, Chrysler is eager to hold down its fixed costs beyond the 2015 expiration of the deal now being negotiated.

Last week, Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne told reporters in Italy that workers should not expect the package proposed at GM, calling it a "completely different" entity from his company.

(Reporting by Ben Klayman and Bernie Woodall in Detroit; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn, Phil Berlowitz)



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5:42 AM

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Stock futures rise on continued Europe hopes

Addison Ray

NEW YORK | Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:39am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures rose on Wednesday, indicating stocks will climb for a fourth straight session as investors remained encouraged by progress toward plans to ease the euro zone's debt woes.

International auditors headed to Greece to scrutinize new austerity measures they must endorse for Athens to get their next tranche of aid.

Also, efforts to solidify a euro zone rescue fund and alleviate the region's sovereign debt crisis lifted stocks on Tuesday for a third consecutive session and came after four straight days of losses for the benchmark S&P 500.

Market volatility could remain as traders react to European headlines and attempt to gauge the commitment of governments and institutions as they work to prevent a Greek default.

S&P 500 futures rose 7.7 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration of the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures gained 95 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 15.25 points.

Investors will also eye data on August durable goods orders from the Commerce Department, due at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Economists in a Thomson Reuters survey expected orders to be unchanged in August versus a 4.1 percent rise in July.

McCormick & Co Inc and Family Dollar Stores Inc both posted quarterly earnings early Wednesday, with Darden Restaurants Inc also scheduled to report.

Asian shares mostly lost ground and oil and metals fell, with copper down more than 4 percent, as a rebound in riskier assets ran out of steam.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)



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