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Wall Street analysts expect top U.S. chains to report that sales at stores open at least a year, or same-store sales, rose 3.3 percent in December.

That would come on top of a 2.9 percent jump a year earlier, when the economic recovery started taking hold, but slower than the 6 percent increase reported for November.

Shoppers turned out in greater numbers this year, buoyed in part by pent-up demand after two seasons of frugality and a general sense that the economy is finally improving.

Still, Wall Street is fretting that shoppers will put their wallets away for a while, now that Christmas is over.

"People have tended to shop during the times they need to, like holidays or back to school," said Nomura analyst Paul Lejuez. "During off periods, they haven't been coming out."

Deeming the holidays a success will hinge on whether department stores, teen apparel chains and others were able to lure shoppers without going overboard with promotions.

"A good December might not mean a great January, February, March," Lejuez said.

Chains such as Target Corp, TJX Cos Inc, J.C. Penney Co Inc and Abercrombie & Fitch Co will report sales numbers on Wednesday and Thursday.

Analysts are watching this week's reports for changes to sales and profit forecasts. They want to know whether the December sales gains were "bought" with profit-eroding price slashing, in which case retailers might hold off on raising their own profit forecasts even if sales are up.

So far, though, most analysts say the season's discounting was not out of line.

Last week's massive blizzard that dumped as much as three feet of snow on parts of the U.S. Northeast likely put a small dent in December sales. Research firm ShopperTrak has estimated that $1 billion in retail sales may have been postponed due to the storm. International Council of Shopping Centers chief economist Michael Niemira told Reuters the snowstorm could lower the December sales growth rate by 0.5 percentage point, though some purchases may show up in January.

February's Valentine's Day is important for specialty retailers such as jeweler Tiffany & Co, but retailers have to wait until Easter, in late April, for the next major shopping occasion.

The spending recovery helped the S&P Retail Index rise 23.4 percent in 2010, compared to the broader S&P 500's increase of 11.7 percent. However, the index has stalled since early December on fears the rally has run out of steam.

(For a graphic comparing same-store sales and the S&P Retail Index please see: r.reuters.com/teb54r )