9:40 PM

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World Bank and IMF at odds over hot money flows

Addison Ray

TOKYO/WASHINGTON | Thu Oct 7, 2010 12:28am EDT

TOKYO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Emerging economies should consider steps to contain fund flows that could cause currency rallies and asset bubbles, the World Bank chief was quoted as saying, but the International Monetary Fund called such actions "undesirable."

The contrasting views over capital controls come amid rising tension between emerging and developed economies over exchange rates, which is expected to be a hot topic at Group of Seven and International Monetary Fund meeting starting on Friday.

Western leaders are worried efforts by emerging economies to weaken their currencies could derail the fragile economic recovery. Officials from developing markets say ultra-low interest rates in rich countries are fuelling massive fund flows into their markets, pushing up their currencies and inflating prices of stocks, property and other assets.

World Bank President Robert Zoellick said emerging nations should consider various measures to control short-term capital flows, according to the Nikkei newspaper.

But IMF deputy managing director, Naoyuki Shinohara, said it was natural and welcome for money to shift into economies with strong growth and policymakers should not try to curb such flows or use intervention to defend specific currency targets.

"When there are occasionally volatile moves in the market, intervention cannot be ruled out," he told Reuters in an interview in Washington on Wednesday.

"But it's totally undesirable for a country to intervene consistently to keep currencies at a certain level."

SLAP ON THE WRIST

Shinohara, who was Japan's currency tsar before assuming the IMF post, warned Tokyo faced a losing battle trying to go against the tide and weaken the yen as monetary conditions in the United States and Europe are expected to remain easy.

"This is not something that Japan can control. If Japan tries to adjust this, it will distort markets," Shinohara said, adding that Tokyo should instead focus on structural reforms and monetary easing to beat deflation.

Zoellick, however, was careful not to judge Japan and other nations which have stepped into markets to weaken their currencies.

"I'm neither endorsing them nor criticizing them," Zoellick said told the Nikkei in an interview published on Thursday on its English website.

Japan sold the yen in the currency market for the first time in six years last month, The currency drifted back up, hitting a 15-year high against the dollar on Wednesday.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan reiterated that sharp currency moves cannot be ignored and the government would act decisively as needed.

Signs of a "currency war" are growing as major industrial nations want to keep their exchange rates weak to help their struggling exporters while emerging economies such as Brazil and South Korea are taking or planning steps to curb capital inflows.



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9:01 PM

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Asia stocks at 2-year high

Addison Ray

HONG KONG | Wed Oct 6, 2010 10:25pm EDT

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian stocks edged up to a two-year high on Thursday, supported by resource-related shares, but gains were capped and the U.S. dollar held near a 15-year low against the yen before a U.S. jobs report on Friday.

After data overnight showed U.S. private sector employment surprisingly shrank in September, the potential has increased for the official payrolls report to reflect weakness and accelerate what has become the cheap money trade: sell dollars, buy bonds, equities and gold.

This trade has been driven by expectations the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting next month will shift toward quantitative easing (QE), effectively flooding the financial system with cheaply borrowed cash.

The greater chance of a soft U.S. payrolls number made the dollar's disadvantages all the more stark, especially after data showed Australian employment in September was more than double forecasts, driving the Australian dollar to the highest since July 2008 against the dollar.

In equities, Japan's Nikkei share average .N225 gained 0.1 percent, adding to the week's 3.3 percent rise. The index is outperforming the U.S. S&P 500 index .SPX and the FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3, which are both up 1.2 percent so far this week.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan was up 0.25 percent .MIAPJ0000PUS to the highest since June 2008.

The 11.6 percent rise in the index last month exceeded the all-country world index by two percentage points and has been driven by the consumer discretionary, energy, industrial and materials sectors.

Investors remain focused on the U.S. dollar, which fell 8.5 percent against a basket of major currencies in the last quarter.

Goldman Sachs analysts revised their forecasts for the dollar downward, expecting Asian currencies to shoulder more of the burden of currency strength in coming months.

"The combination of weaker growth, more QE, FX policy pressure on Asia for more currency appreciation and widening external imbalances all point in the same direction: broad USD weakness. And this is likely to remain the dominant theme," the analysts said in a note.

The euro has benefited from the dollar's weakness and hit an eight-month high of $1.3949 overnight. It was down 0.1 percent on the day at $1.3910.

The European Central Bank will meet to review policy later though no changes are expected. Dealers will listen for any comment on the euro's rapid 7.5 percent gain last month.

The dollar was trading at 82.90 yen, not far from the 15-year low of 82.75 yen plumbed on Wednesday.

Precious metals have been other beneficiaries of dollar weakness. Gold was largely unchanged on the day after touching a record high of $1,349.80 an ounce on Wednesday. Since August, gold has risen 14 percent.

(Editing by Miral Fahmy)



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8:40 PM

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SABMiller eyes $9.5 billion Africa Castel beer buy: report

Addison Ray

LONDON | Wed Oct 6, 2010 11:16pm EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - Global brewer SABMiller (SAB.L) is in talks to buy the African beer operations of the privately-held French drinks group Castel in a deal worth 6 billion pounds ($9.5 billion), the Times of London said on Thursday.

The newspaper said founder Paul Castel's reduced involvement in the company signals that the next generation may be open to offers, but added that until recently there had been no indication that the family might sell.

SABMiller is the world's second largest brewer after AB InBev (ABI.BR) and brews Peroni, Miller Lite and Grolsch.

SABMiller and Castel were not immediately reachable for comment.

As recently as August, SABMiller was speculated to be looking at the beer operations of Australia's Foster's Group (FGL.AX) which is valued at more than $10 billion.

In Africa, SABMiller has brewing and beverage operations in 14 countries, and a presence in a further 19 nations, largely in West Africa, through a strategic alliance with Castel.

The global brewing industry has seen a number of significant merger and acquisition deals in recent years.

Belgium's InBev acquired St. Louis-based Anheuser-Busch in 2008, creating the world's largest brewer with brands including Stella Artois, Beck's and Bud Light.

Japanese brewer Kirin Holdings (2503.T), faced with a shrinking beer market at home, has been on an aggressive overseas expansion drive -- in July it bought a stake in beverage and property conglomerate Fraser & Neave (FRNM.SI) for $953 million.

(Reporting by Karolina Tagaris; editing by Dhara Ranasinghe)



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6:29 PM

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Big reforms due in pension review

Addison Ray

A report into the future of public sector pensions is expected to recommend major reforms later.

Former Labour cabinet minister Lord Hutton will publish the initial findings of a review of the provision offered to firefighters, teachers, nurses and other key workers.

The report could suggest a later retirement age and bigger contributions from staff.

Unions have warned that these workers are already facing job and wage cuts.

"Public servants are already facing job cuts, a pay freeze and intensified workloads as staff are not replaced," said TUC general secretary Brendan Barber.

"Cuts in their pension provision and increased contributions that lead to a cut in take home pay, at a time when inflation is biting, will add to the volatile cocktail of issues they face.

"The value of public sector pensions has already been hit hard by linking them to the CPI inflation measure, rather than the RPI measure. The Treasury's own figures show that this is likely to reduce pensions by 7% over the next six years."

Public versus private

When setting up the commission earlier this year, Chancellor George Osborne said that the projected rise in the cost to taxpayers of public sector pensions was "unsustainable".

"Start Quote

Public sector workers, like all workers, deserve a good retirement"

End Quote Joanne Segars National Association of Pension Funds

Some argue that public sector workers have been shielded up to now by the changes that have affected private sector workers.

"Private sector pensions have had to change a lot over the past few years, and the public sector also needs to make reforms to become more sustainable," said Joanne Segars, chief executive of the National Association of Pension Funds.

"However, this must not become a race to the bottom. Public sector workers, like all workers, deserve a good retirement.

"An increase in contributions and a later retirement age are on the cards, alongside a range of other options. But we do not know what Lord Hutton is going to suggest."

Many public sector workers argue that they have accepted lower pay than they could get in the private sector in order to benefit from better pension provision.



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5:58 PM

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GDP growth 'slower than thought'

Addison Ray

The global economy will grow slightly more slowly than previously expected next year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

It predicted GDP would increase by 4.2% in 2011, down from an earlier forecast of 4.3%.

And while economic recovery was likely to continue, it warned that risks were high.

There are worries that as governments try to reduce their debt burdens and cut spending, growth may suffer.

On Tuesday, the IMF said that the global financial system remained the weak link in the economic recovery.

It predicted a gradual improvement in the financial system, but added that there was a substantial risk of further problems.

'Vulnerable'

The latest report, the IMF's World Economic Outlook, highlighted the difference in growth expected in the advanced and emerging economies.

In advanced economies - including the US, the UK, Japan and key EU nations - it said that the financial sector was "still vulnerable to shocks", adding that "growth appears to be slowing" as government stimulus efforts began to be withdrawn.

Analysis

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It is a recovery and it will continue, the IMF tells us. In the developed world, that is about as good as it gets.

For a recovery from a deep recession, growth in those countries is likely to be unusually sluggish.

Unemployment will stay high. Financial systems and property markets could cause more trouble. Fixing damaged public finances needs to start in earnest next year, so governments can't do much by way of stimulus, although central banks could do more.

The developing world is another story. The weakness in rich countries does matter to them, but the IMF is forecasting robust growth for many emerging economies.

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This would lead to growth of 2.8% in 2010 and 2.2% next year - from an earlier prediction of 2.4%.

However, economic growth in what it classes as emerging and developing economies - which include Brazil, Russia, India and China - will be 6.4% next year, it said, unchanged from earlier predictions. This year it is expecting growth of 7.1%, slightly better than previously stated.

Unemployment issue

The IMF forecast was prepared for the annual autumn meeting it holds with the World Bank.

It said that while its prediction of 2.6% growth for the US in 2010 was historically weak in the aftermath of a recession, it was a vast improvement on the 2.6% decline in US economic activity in 2009.

And it said growth prospects were weaker in Europe - with the 16 nations in the eurozone set to see their economies average 1.7% growth this year and 1.5% in 2011.

The report also suggested that there were more than 210 million people across the globe who are unemployed - an increase of more than 30 million since 2007.



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5:28 PM

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Liverpool &#39;to shed debts&#39; in deal

Addison Ray

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Liverpool's prospective new owner has vowed to clear the Premier League club's debts when it takes over.

New England Sports Ventures (NESV) issued a statement saying it would move "all acquisition debt" away from the club if the �300m bid succeeds.

NESV - owners of the Boston Red Sox baseball team - confirmed its bid has been accepted by Liverpool's board.

But Reds' owners Tom Hicks and George Gillett are trying to block the sale which they say undervalues the club.

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Hicks and Gillett are trying to replace Liverpool's managing director Christian Purslow and commercial director Ian Ayre with Hicks' son Mack and a business associate Lori Kay McCutcheon.

Purslow, Ayre and chairman Martin Broughton are now consulting lawyers over whether they can resist the owners' attempts to replace them and force through a sale to the American consortium.

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Its statement added: "NESV wants to create a long-term financially solid foundation for Liverpool FC and is dedicated to ensuring that the club has the resources to build for the future, including the removal of all acquisition debt.

"Our objective is to stabilise the club and ultimately return Liverpool FC to its rightful place in English and European football, successfully competing for and winning trophies.

"Since 2001, New England Sports Ventures has made successful investments in sports and entertainment properties.

"Our portfolio of companies - including the Boston Red Sox and Fenway Park, New England Sports Network, Fenway Sports Group and Roush Fenway Racing - are all committed to one common goal: winning.

"NESV wants to help bring back the culture of winning to Liverpool FC.

"We have a proven track record, shown clearly with the Boston Red Sox. The team has won two World Series championships over the past six years. We will bring the same kind of openness, passion, dedication and professionalism to Liverpool FC."

In an interview with Associated Press, Broughton said the deal would mean Hicks and Gillett losing about �140m but said the new owners had pledged a 60,000-seat stadium - either by redeveloping Anfield or on a new site.

BBC Sports understands manager Roy Hodgson will be given time by the Massachusetts-based partnership to turn around the club's fortunes on the field, having dropped into the relegation zone after the weekend's defeat at home to Blackpool.

If the sale goes through, they will assess the situation and it is thought Hodgson still retains the support inside Anfield.

<!-- S IIMA --> <!-- E IIMA -->

The Premier League expects the hurdles for the takeover bid to be cleared this week.

The club's current, much-criticised, American owners Hicks and Gillett, say the NESV bid - and a rival one from an Asian consortium - "dramatically undervalues" Liverpool's worth.

NESV is thought to be offering about �300m for the club, enough to pay back the �240m of loans and �40m of fees owed to Royal Bank of Scotland, which must be settled by 15 October else a penalty fee of �60m will be due.

Hicks and Gillett are believed to value the club at �600m.

<!-- E BO -->

Print Sponsor



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2:13 PM

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Verizon to sell Apple iPhone from early 2011: report

Addison Ray

Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

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8:23 AM

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GE inks $4.6 billion in deals in big return to M&A

Addison Ray

BOSTON | Wed Oct 6, 2010 11:10am EDT

BOSTON (Reuters) - General Electric Co (GE.N) made a pair of major acquisitions and said it was spurned in a third attempt, as the largest U.S. conglomerate builds up its energy and finance arms.

The moves come at a time when top GE officials have said the company could have up to $30 billion available for takeovers over the next few years, marking a shift in stance from the company's defensive posture over the past few years.

GE reached a $3 billion deal to buy Dresser Inc DRESS.UL, a maker of gas engines used by oil and gas production equipment.

"Dresser has a global franchise and brand with 60 percent of revenues outside of North America, which will be accelerated by GE's global footprint," said John Krenicki, a GE vice chairman and chief executive of the company's energy infrastructure division.

Its GE Capital finance arm, which had been its weakest point through the recession had bought $1.6 billion of retail credit assets from Citigroup Inc (C.N).

But GE also said British oilfield services Wellstream Holdings (WSML.L) rejected a $1.2 billion (755 million pound) takeover approach.

GE has been an active acquirer over most of the past decade, and CEO Jeff Immelt has said the company will focus on deals sized at $1 billion to $3 billion in areas that complement its core industrial and finance franchises.

The company is in the process of selling its NBC Universal media business to No. 1 U.S. cable operator Comcast Corp (CMCSA.O).

The payoff of the company's latest round of deals is yet to be seen, said Peter Klein, senior portfolio manager at Fifth Third Asset Management in Cleveland, Ohio, which holds GE shares.

"Are they going to get it right? Are they going to pay the right price? It depends how eager they are to add on assets," Klein said.

GE shares were up 1 percent at $16.68 on the New York Stock Exchange.

(Reporting by Scott Malone; Editing by Derek Caney)



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7:18 AM

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Private sector job cuts raise Fed easing chances

Addison Ray

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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Private employers unexpectedly shed jobs in September, reinforcing the belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve will embark on another round of monetary policy stimulus to support...




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6:33 AM

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Private sector sheds 39,000 jobs in September

Addison Ray

NEW YORK | Wed Oct 6, 2010 8:39am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Private employers unexpectedly cut 39,000 jobs in September after an upwardly revised gain of 10,000 in August, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

The August figure was originally reported as a loss of 10,000.

The median of estimates from 38 economists surveyed by Reuters for the ADP Employer Services report, jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, was for a rise of 24,000 private-sector jobs in September.

The ADP figures come ahead of the government's much more comprehensive labor market report on Friday, which includes both public and private sector employment.

That report is expected to show overall nonfarm payrolls were unchanged in September, based on a Reuters poll of analysts, but a rise in private payrolls of 75,000.

Economists often refer to the ADP report to fine-tune their expectations for the payrolls numbers, though it is not always accurate in predicting the outcome.

(Reporting by Leah Schnurr, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)



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6:14 AM

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IMF revises U.S. growth down, jobs picture bleak

Addison Ray

WASHINGTON | Wed Oct 6, 2010 8:39am EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth will be much weaker this year and in 2011 than previously thought and that dims hopes for bringing down a very high unemployment rate anytime soon, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.

In a sober assessment of the U.S. outlook, the IMF pulled down its estimate for 2010 growth to 2.6 percent from the 3.3 percent it published in July and said gross domestic product or GDP will expand 2.3 percent in 2011 instead of 2.9 percent.

"The most likely prospect for the U.S. economy is for a continued but slow recovery, with growth far weaker than in previous recoveries, considering the depth of the recession," the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook published ahead of weekend semi-annual meetings of it and the World Bank.

The IMF said the main reason the U.S. recovery is so weak is that consumer spending is sluggish and suggests it is little wonder that is the case. Falling home prices have reduced household wealth, 9.6 percent of the workforce is unemployed, banks won't lend and people are scared into saving.

It says the gap between actual and potential economic output will be a lingering drag on the pace of recovery.

"The unemployment rate is therefore expected to remain stubbornly high," it warns, which further hinders consumption spending that is the largest component of U.S. GDP.

"Risks to the outlook remain elevated and are tilted to the downside," the IMF said, noting that real estate markets are "still fragile" and soaring government debt has created worry in financial markets.

It says the government must lay the groundwork in 2011 for fiscal consolidation to reduce its indebtedness. The IMF said the Obama administration had set the right direction in its mid-session economic review by proposing fiscal tightening of about 1 percent of GDP.

The IMF said there was "a tail risk of deflation" arising from soft consumer prices, weak labor markets and consumers' increased wish to save instead of spend.

Nonetheless, it urged that the Federal Reserve maintain its policy of very low interest rates to try to spur subpar growth and to offset lingering financial strains.

The U.S. central bank has held overnight interest rates at nearly zero for close to two years and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted this week that it could resume asset purchases to inject more liquidity into the economy in hope of priming more lending by banks to speed up recovery.

In contrast with the United States, neighboring Canada's economy remains "relatively buoyant" with both household balance sheets and banks in good shape, the IMF said.

The main concerns for Canada are external ones, arising from the possibility of lower commodity prices, mainly for oil and minerals, and the risk that the United States, its key export market, could slow down more than anticipated, the IMF said.

(Reporting by Glenn Somerville; Editing by Andrea Ricci)



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5:12 AM

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Stock futures rise ahead of private sector ADP jobs data

Addison Ray

NEW YORK | Wed Oct 6, 2010 7:20am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures rose on Wednesday, building on the previous session's rally, ahead of data expected to show a return to job growth in the private sector.

Investors are expecting private employers to add 24,000 jobs in September, according to the ADP Employer Services report, which is scheduled for release at 8:15 a.m.. In August, private employers unexpectedly cut 10,000 jobs.

The number is a precursor for Friday's closely watched non-farm payroll report, which is expected to be unchanged in September as government layoffs were offset by private hiring.

Dow component Johnson & Johnson Inc (JNJ.N) on Wednesday said Crucell (CRCL.AS) will recommend that shareholders accept J&J's $2.4 billion takeover bid for the Dutch biotech company.

Many analysts see increased M&A activity as a sign that in using their record levels of cash, companies are becoming more confident.

Costco Wholesale Corp (COST.O) posted fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations while September same-store sales, excluding fuel, rose 4 percent.

Late Tuesday, Yum Brands Inc (YUM.N) reported adjusted third-quarter earnings that beat expectations and raised its full-year earnings outlook, helped by strong sales in China.

Marriott International (MAR.N), Monsanto Co (MON.N) and Constellation Brands In (STZ.N) are also on tap to report results on Wednesday.

S&P 500 futures rose 3.2 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures added 51 points and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 5.25 points.

Japan's Nikkei average surged 1.8 percent to close at its highest level in two months as investors continued to welcome the Bank of Japan's surprise interest rate cut the day before, while European shares were up 0.8 percent in morning trade, adding to the previous session on hopes of further monetary stimulus. .T .EU

The dollar stayed near eight-month lows on the euro and edged toward a 15-year trough on the yen on Wednesday, hurt by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve easing after Japan lined up its own reflation tools.

U.S. stocks rallied to near a five-month high on Tuesday on growing conviction central banks will do even more to bolster struggling economies worldwide.

(Editing by W Simon )



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4:11 AM

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IMF warns against currency war

Addison Ray

LONDON | Wed Oct 6, 2010 6:48am EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - The head of the IMF warned that a growing drive by nations to cap the strength of their currencies risked derailing economic recovery while the dollar dropped further on Wednesday.

Concerns that the Federal Reserve is about to embark on another round of policy easing that could weaken the dollar, tallied with China's polite refusal to let its yuan rise fast, has pushed currencies to the top of the agenda at Friday's meeting of finance chiefs from the Group of Seven nations.

Few hold out much hope of any meaningful agreement at the G7 or the International Monetary Fund meeting that follows.

"It's doing nothing for the American economy, but it's causing chaos over the rest of the world. It's a very strange policy that they are pursuing," Nobel economics laureate Joseph Stiglitz said of U.S. policy.

The dollar extended its losses on Wednesday, falling to an 8-1/2 month low against a basket of currencies and edging toward a 15-year trough versus the yen.

That trend prompted Japan to intervene to weaken the yen last month and some emerging economies have followed suit or are threatening to.

"There is clearly the idea beginning to circulate that currencies can be used as a policy weapon," IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn was quoted as saying in Wednesday's edition of the Financial Times.

"Translated into action, such an idea would represent a very serious risk to the global recovery ... Any such approach would have a negative and very damaging longer-run impact," he said.

The IMF, which holds its twice-yearly meeting in Washington this weekend, is also expected to discuss foreign exchange moves as part of its mission to get countries working for balanced global growth.

Brendan Brown, economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities International in London, said the Fund, which has the United States as its biggest stakeholder, would not try to prevent further U.S. monetary easing or a resulting slide of the dollar.

"That Washington institution has failed in its central mission to prevent currency war," he wrote in a report.

CHINA UNMOVED

Euro zone policymakers urged Chinese premier Wen Jiabao on Tuesday to allow the yuan to rise more rapidly, but he politely rebuffed them, repeating Beijing's standard line on seeking currency stability.

Wen was due to hold a joint news conference with EU leaders in Brussels at 1515 GMT.

Policymakers have highlighted the issue of global imbalances for years, with fundamental problems seen as the dollar's global dominance, China's overvalued yuan and Germany's lack of domestic consumption.



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1:00 AM

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Costco fourth-quarter profit rises

Addison Ray

Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

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