1:46 PM

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Stocks may face wild swings and earnings blitz

Addison Ray

NEW YORK | Sat Oct 23, 2010 12:11pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks could see big swings to the downside next week on any remotely "bad" news since volatility indexes are at levels considered too low.

Investors also will face a blizzard of earnings, which many analysts believe will continue to support the rally that began early this month. But any disappointments in either earnings or outlooks could, of course, trigger a sharp sell-off.

What's more, the market is likely to continue to garner support from investors' hopes that the Federal Reserve will take more steps to stimulate the economy, in what's known as "quantitative easing" or "QE2." The Fed is expected to unveil its initial commitment under QE2 at its November 2-3 meeting.

The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, or VIX .VIX, a gauge widely used to measure investors' anxiety levels, fell 2.54 percent on Friday to close at 18.78, its lowest level since April. The VIX, which rose to near 50 in May, has been around or under 20 for the past two weeks.

Options traders note that there is a clear sign of extreme complacency in the VIX and that it is making the market more vulnerable than before.

"The 'market volatility' index will see a lot more volatility (next week) since it is at such low levels now," said Steve Claussen, chief investment strategist at online brokerage OptionHouse.com.

The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures exchange-traded note, or ETN (VXX.P) is also at a new 52-week low of 12.83. The ETN offers directional exposure to volatility and is based off of the front two-month VIX futures.

"If you look at VIX futures, investors seem to be always preparing for something to trigger the volatility to spike up again, yet there is nothing major in the immediate future that justifies that," Claussen said.

The VIX futures were traded at around 21 for November and 24 for December, but going into 2011, they were showing an increase of 40 percent, trading above 26.

The VIX, widely known as Wall Street's fear gauge, is a 30-day risk forecast of stock market volatility. The index typically has an inverse relationship with the S&P benchmark as it tracks option prices that investors are willing to pay as protection on the underlying stocks.

Earlier this week, the VIX instantly shot up nearly 12 percent when stocks suffered their steepest one-day decline since August after a surprising rate hike from China.

EARNINGS ON CENTER STAGE

Earnings will remain the center of attention next week. Many analysts predict that earnings will continue to support the market rally that kicked off October. If more companies report strong results, that could bolster sentiment, along with hopes for more Fed easing.

In the last week of October, 177 S&P 500 companies are due to report their balance sheets, of which seven are Dow components. Among them are energy giants Exxon (XOM.N) and Chevron (CVX.N) and technology giant Microsoft (MSFT.O).

S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase 28 percent for the third quarter from a year ago, up from a growth estimate of 24 percent last week, according to Thomson Reuters data.



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2:59 AM

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Vodafone in $2.5bn India tax bill

Addison Ray

Indian tax authorities have given Vodafone 30 days to pay a 112bn rupee ($2.5bn, �1.6bn) tax bill, as part of an ongoing tax dispute.

The formal demand relates to the mobile phone company's 2007 purchase of the Indian telephone assets of Hong Kong conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa.

Vodafone will appeal against the tax at the Indian supreme court on Monday.

The firm says the $11bn transaction was exempt from tax because it took place between two offshore entities.

"Start Quote

Vittorio Colao

I have actually invested more in India because I do believe in the country"

End Quote Vittorio Colao Vodafone Group chief executive

But the Indian tax department now says that Vodafone must pay the capital gains tax, and has handed the company its first formal tax demand.

"Vodafone strongly disagrees with the tax calculation," the mobile operator said in a statement.

"The tax authority is attempting to interpret Indian law as it has never been interpreted for the past 50 years, and this interpretation also goes against internationally recognised tax norms."

Big investment

Vodafone is one of the biggest mobile operators in India, with 116 million customers, by virtue of a partnership with local company Essar group.

On the same day that the UK company received the tax demand, its Indian joint venture - "Vodafone Essar" - announced plans to launch 3G services in the new year.

The Indian subsidiary represents a significant investment on Vodafone's part, including a $2.6bn payment for its 3G licence.

The subsidiary plans a further $500m of 3G network investment.

"We need to get more certainty that regulation will not come back and bite us in order to confirm our investment," said Vodafone Group chief executive, Vittorio Colao, speaking to India's Economic Times newspaper.

"I have actually invested more in India because I do believe in the country, but of course now I also need a positive outcome from the tax case and stable regulatory environment to continue."



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2:29 AM

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BA to reinstate some crew perks

Addison Ray

British Airways has said that it will restore basic travel concessions to cabin crew who went on strike earlier this year.

The deal, which gives staff 90% off the cost of air travel, will be resumed on 26 October.

However, some crew may not be eligible for the concessions until 2013.

The issue of travel concessions has been one of the main grievances between BA and the Unite union in the long-running and bitter dispute.

Despite the compromise, however, there are still question marks about who will receive the perks, and when.

This is because BA has not restored seniority to those cabin crew members who went to the back of the queue for travel perks as a result of the strikes.

BA said that seniority would only be restored on the condition of good behaviour for the next three years.

The airline also said the concession on travel perks was conditional on Unite making a committment not to pursue any legal action against BA.

High price

The BBC's employment correspondent Martin Shankleman said the concession by BA showed that the two parties "may be moving towards a resolution of the dispute".

BA boss Willie Walsh had previously said that he would not reinstate the travel perks.

The airline's cabin crew workers have staged 22 days of strike action since March, costing the airline �150m.

When the dispute began in November last year, it centred on changes to staffing levels and working conditions.

However, the main bone of contention in recent negotiations has been the removal of travel concessions and other disciplinary measures taken by BA against crew members as a result of the strikes.



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1:59 AM

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G20 ministers resist US pressure

Addison Ray

US proposals that countries set targets to reduce trade imbalances appeared to be running into opposition at the G20 meeting of leading economies.

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote to G20 members on Friday suggesting limiting surpluses and deficits to a percentage of output.

But Japan, Germany and Russia expressed opposition to what one delegate called "planned economy" thinking.

The proposal is seen as mainly directed at China, which had yet to comment.

Washington has for months been pressing China - without success - to let its currency appreciate.

Getting Beijing to tackle its large trade surplus would be an indirect way of forcing the yuan to rising in value.

In his letter to G20 colleagues on the opening day of a meeting of finance ministers in South Korea, Mr Geithner said countries should aim to reduce surpluses or deficits to a targeted share of gross domestic product.

US officials said the target would be 4% of GDP by 2015. China's current account surplus was 4.9% of GDP in the first half.

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda summed up the mood among other big exporters, including Germany, saying Mr Geithner's proposal was "not realistic".

Australian Treasury Secretary Wayne Swan said he was not sure a "one-size-fits-all" approach could work.

Tensions over exchange rates are like to dominate the meeting, being held ahead of a summit by heads of state next month.

Common approach

The G20 finance ministers are trying to find a co-ordinated path out of the financial crisis and avert what some leaders have called "currency wars".

Many countries have been happy to see the value of their currencies fall, as it boosts their export competitiveness.

The US has accused Beijing of resisting upward pressure on the yuan by buying dollars, thereby making America's exports to China more expensive.

However, China has expressed unhappiness at what it sees as foreign interference in what it believes is an internal matter.



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1:26 AM

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G20 strikes key IMF deal, waters down economic pact

Addison Ray

GYEONGJU, South Korea | Sat Oct 23, 2010 3:59am EDT

GYEONGJU, South Korea (Reuters) - Group of 20 finance leaders struck a landmark deal on Saturday to boost developing countries' power in the International Monetary Fund even as they failed to set targets for a wide-ranging global economic rebalancing.

The IMF deal was hailed by fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn as a "historical" moment that will see Europeans give up two seats on its 24-strong board to powerful developing countries and transfer 6 percent of votes to them.

"This makes for the biggest reform ever in the governance of the institution," Strauss-Kahn, who heads the 187 country body, told reporters.

The G20 agreed a year ago to shift at least 5 percent of voting rights to developing countries such as India and Brazil whose clout within the Fund has not kept pace with their emergence as major engines of global growth.

Despite the surprise deal on the IMF, which had not been expected until G20 leaders meet in South Korea next month, efforts to firm commitments to enshrine numerical targets for current account deficits met with tough resistance.

Attempts to firm up rhetoric in the final communique to push emerging market countries to accept meaningful near-term appreciation of their currencies failed and all countries will commit to is to refrain from "competitive devaluation."

"We're all committed to moving toward market determined exchange rates that reflect underlying fundamentals and refrain from competitive devaluation," said an official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The lack of a stronger pledge from the likes of China and the South Korean will likely hit the dollar, economists said.

A U.S. official separately told Reuters the United States had no expectation its proposal of setting numerical targets on external balances would make it into the G20 statement.

The U.S. official said Washington knew that including specific targets for imbalances at this stage would be rejected by a number of countries with structurally high trade surpluses, including Germany and major commodity exporters. But it helped focus the discussions which initially were in disarray, he said.

A source with knowledge of the night-long discussions confirmed that the final statement would water down proposals on tackling external imbalances. "Persistently large imbalances would warrant an assessment," the communique would state, he said.

Such an outcome is what other G20 officials had predicted, given the disparate views of the diverse group.

China was against any limits on imbalances, another G20 source said on Friday. He also said there was a "rift down the middle" on currencies and International Monetary Fund reforms, and the final statement would be "bland."

There was, however, broad agreement that "unilateral and uncoordinated responses" to shore up fragile economies could prove damaging for everyone, a source said.

In a letter read to fellow finance ministers of the G20 on Friday, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said countries should act to reduce their current account imbalances below a specified share of national output.



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1:07 AM

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Regulators close seven more banks in U.S.

Addison Ray

WASHINGTON | Fri Oct 22, 2010 9:32pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp said on Friday that U.S. regulators closed seven more banks, bringing the total so far this year to 139.

The biggest was Hillcrest Bank of Overland Park, Kansas, which had approximately $1.65 billion in total assets and $1.54 billion in total deposits.

Regulators also closed First Arizona Savings, Scottsdale, Arizona; First Suburban National Bank, Maywood, Illinois; First National Bank of Barnesville, Barnesville, Georgia; Gordon Bank, Gordon, Georgia; Progress Bank of Florida, Tampa, Florida; and First Bank of Jacksonville, Jacksonville, Florida.

A newly chartered bank subsidiary of NBH Holdings Corp, Boston, Massachusetts, will assume all of the deposits of Hillcrest Bank.

The new NBH subsidiary, also called Hillcrest Bank, also agreed to purchase essentially all of the failed bank's assets, the FDIC said.

First Arizona Savings had approximately $272.2 million in total assets and $198.8 million in total deposits.

At the time of closing, the bank had an estimated $1.8 million in uninsured funds.

The FDIC said it was unable to find another financial institution to take over the banking operations of First Arizona Savings. As a result, checks to depositors for their insured funds will be mailed on Monday.

First Suburban National Bank had about $148.7 million in total assets and $140.0 million in total deposits.

Seaway Bank and Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois, assumed all of First Suburban's deposits and agreed to purchase essentially all of the failed bank's assets.

First National Bank of Barnesville had approximately $131.4 million in total assets and $127.1 million in total deposits.

United Bank of Zebulon, Georgia, assumed all of the Barnesville bank's deposits and agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.

Gordon Bank had approximately $29.4 million in total assets and $26.7 million in total deposits.

Morris Bank of Dublin, Georgia, paid a premium of 0.5 percent for the deposits of Gordon Bank and agreed to purchase about $11.5 million of the failed bank's assets. The FDIC will keep the remaining assets for later disposition.

Progress Bank of Florida had approximately $110.7 million in total assets and $101.3 million in total deposits.

Bay Cities Bank of Tampa, Florida, assumed all of Progress Bank's deposits and agreed to purchase essentially all of the failed bank's assets.



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