10:32 AM

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Stocks stymied without a debt deal

Addison Ray

NEW YORK | Sun Jul 17, 2011 10:54am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks will be hard pressed to turn the tide of recent selling this week as political jousting over raising the United States' debt ceiling intensifies.

The benchmark S&P 500 index last week recorded its worst weekly loss in five weeks.

Investors, frustrated by the lack of progress in the debate between the Democrat-controlled White House and Senate and the Republican-majority House of Representatives, could move into what are perceived as safer assets, such as cash.

While the wrangling over the debt ceiling takes center stage, earnings season will continue to heat up after a solid first week. According to Thomson Reuters data, 39 companies in the benchmark S&P 500 index .SPX have posted results, with 74 percent reporting earnings that topped Wall Street estimates.

Companies in the index are forecast to show a 6.5 percent rise in profits over the second quarter of 2010 when all the reports are in.

For last week, the S&P 500 ended down 2.1 percent; the Dow fell 1.4 percent and the Nasdaq declined 2.5 percent.

The overhang from the debt ceiling issue could diminish the focus on earnings.

House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, said on Friday that President Barack Obama and Democrats still had not put a serious deficit plan on the table, underscoring the acrimony in negotiations to avert a government default.

"The news flow (this) week dealing with the deficit issues and the political posturing that is taking place is going to intensify and is really going to drive these markets," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services in Charlotte, Vermont.

"People are starting to get nervous about what they are seeing out there. For a portfolio manager -- let alone an average investor -- this is a treacherous market to be trying to position yourself in."

ECONOMY IS A "DISASTER"

Economic data on tap for the coming week includes several reports on the housing market -- June housing starts on Tuesday and existing-home sales on Wednesday. In addition, data is due on leading economic indicators for June and the Philadelphia Fed survey of manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. Economic reports over the last month have raised questions about the health of the U.S. recovery.

"The bigger picture is the economy is still a disaster," said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.

Saluzzi said people still are watching earnings for signs growth may be stagnating. "Eventually, companies are not going to keep cutting costs."

Quarterly results are expected from a slew of companies this week, with more than 10 Dow components scheduled to report.

Major financial companies due to report include Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) and American Express (AXP.N). Also on the calendar are earnings news from technology companies Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Intel Corp (INTC.O).

"Let's see what all the rest of these guys have. Let's see if it's still being driven by cost cuts or are they actually getting revenue gains. That is going to tell me a lot more than if they cut the debt deal," said Saluzzi.

After the S&P 500 weekly loss, the index was just below its 50-day moving average, a technical level that could indicate more selling. Some analysts believe the market could still come back if the U.S. debt issue is resolved soon.

"This area, as far as it pulling back, is balancing the threat of a default, but it would take an actual default to take us much lower than here," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co in San Francisco.

But the longer the debt ceiling question continues without a conclusion, the bigger the risk for further declines in stocks and for volatility to spike. The CBOE Volatility index .VIX rose nearly 30 percent last week

"The more it drags out into Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday or whatever, then we've got some serious issues. That will be an overhang no matter how good the financials come in terms of earnings reports next week," said Tommy Huie, chief investment officer of BMO Asset Management U.S. in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

"It could be a pretty volatile week, no doubt about it."

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Kenneth Barry)



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10:12 AM

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Ratings agencies rattle cages in U.S., Europe

Addison Ray

NEW YORK | Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:58am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The credit ratings agencies are again angering governments, but this time they are taking on the big fish of the world economy.

From Washington to Brussels, Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch have added to the intense pressure on governments trying to deal with crushing sovereign debt.

Their warnings about the precarious finances of the world's top economies have also roiled investors more accustomed to seeing emerging market countries take the brunt of criticism.

Tension hit new highs on both sides of the Atlantic last week as Moody's and Standard & Poor's threatened to downgrade the United States' prized "triple-A" rating.

A few days earlier, Moody's slashed ratings in Ireland and Portugal to "junk" status, triggering an outcry from European officials.

"These opinions, they continue to give them in such a way that it worsens the crisis," Ewald Nowotny, a member of the European Central governing council, said on Tuesday, referring to the agencies. He said markets could live without them.

Now that the agencies are focusing their fire on the rich world, U.S. and European officials -- long proponents of seeing indebted nations "take their medicine" -- are crying foul.

Their complaints carry a strong sense of deja-vu.

In 1998, when Moody's pushed Brazil deeper into "junk" rating territory, the country's finance ministry called the decision a "mistake" that showed the agency needed to invest more in sovereign risk analysis.

In a sign of the turnaround of the fortunes of many emerging economies, 11 years later in its New York headquarters Moody's received a much friendlier Brazilian finance minister, Guido Mantega, to hand him Brazil's much-awaited "investment-grade" status.

The question now is whether the agencies will be able to withstand much stronger political pressures while the debt crisis rages in developed countries.

In Europe and the United States, policymakers have already promised tougher regulations for the agencies after they failed to spot the housing bubble in the middle of the last decade. and stand accused of contributing to it by giving generous ratings to subprime mortgage bonds.

Rating agencies came under fire from holders of subprime-related securities because raters are paid by the firms issuing the securities. Investors argued that kind of "economic incentive" blurred the analysis.

Sovereign nations, by contrast, do not shell out any money for their ratings.

That has not lessened the political anger. On Wednesday, U.S. Congressman Dennis Kucinich said: "No nation, agency or organization has the authority to dictate terms to the United States government. Moody's and its compatriot S&P were a direct cause of the near collapse of the economy of the United States."

EUROPEAN RATING AGENCY

In Europe, where the agencies poured cold water on a plan for Greece to extend debt maturities and avoid a default, sentiment is even worse. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso accused them of having an anti-European bias.

Barroso and other policymakers want the creation of an European rating agency which, they argue, would be better equipped to analyze euro zone issues. That argument overlooks the fact that Fitch is majority-owned by a French company.

The intensity of Europe's reaction to the latest sovereign downgrades is proportional to the power that ratings agencies retain over financial markets -- a clout that even the ratings agencies suggest is exaggerated.

In a recent special report about proposed regulation changes, Moody's said the agencies should not be seen as "gatekeepers in the financial markets" and their ratings should not be used as substitutes for disclosure by issuers.

WRONG TIMING

Some say policy makers may have a point when they criticize the timing of the downgrades by ratings agencies.

Their failure to anticipate the severe deterioration of sovereign credit was an issue in emerging market debt crises in the past, said Claudio Loser, a former Western hemisphere director for the International Monetary Fund.

"My experience with the rating agencies in Latin America during the debt crisis of the 1980s and 1990s is that they were a destabilizing factor," said Loser, now president of the Centennial Latin America consulting firm.

"They did not warn the markets when they should have and they did actually create more noise when it was not the appropriate thing to do."

Loser believes policymakers will force the agencies to "adjust significantly," and that they will emerge stronger from this crisis.

(Reporting by Walter Brandimarte; Editing by David Gaffen, Jennifer Ablan and Maureen Bavdek)



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