9:52 PM

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Asia shares fall after Alcoa, Slovak move caps

Addison Ray

TOKYO | Tue Oct 11, 2011 11:28pm EDT

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Wednesday on concerns Europe's debt crisis has hurt confidence in the global economy and is weighing on corporate earnings, while the Slovak parliament's rejection of a plan to expand the euro zone rescue fund added to uncertainty.

Growth-sensitive Asian shares were hit the most, while concerns that a delay in expanding the bailout fund could slow momentum in efforts to prevent the euro zone's debt woes from morphing into a banking crisis led to a widening in Asian credits.

"The broader trend is dictated by the problems in Europe, and Slovakia's rejection was negative to sentiment, as beefing up the fund is vital in providing a sense of security," said Hirokazu Yuihama, senior strategist at Daiwa Capital Markets.

S&P 500 futures eased after below-forecast results from Alcoa Inc. (AA.N) that could sour the mood on Wall Street later as attention turns to the U.S. earnings season.

Slovakia is the only euro zone country that has yet to approve a plan to boost the funds available to the bailout vehicle, and a re-vote was expected later this week.

While the main opposition party was set to support the measure now the government has resigned, the twist has added to market nervousness just as European authorities were striving to come up with concrete steps to avoid a wider contagion.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.6 percent, led by a near 2 percent drop in the materials sector .MIAPJMT00PUS.

Japan's Nikkei average .N225 was down 0.7 percent, after

Alcoa Inc, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, said on Tuesday slowing economic growth knocked prices for the metal lower, denting its third-quarter profit and sending its shares down in after-hours trading.

"Those who were looking for reassurance about the U.S. earnings season didn't find it," said Kenichi Hirano, operating officer at Tachibana Securities.

Asian credit markets reflected renewed bearish sentiment, with the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment grade index widening by about 15 points.

A Hong Kong based fund manager said recent market gains were largely a technical rebound from last month's sell-off, adding that a lack of inflows from pension and mutual funds, so-called real money, was stymieing new bond corporate issues.

"All that you are seeing now is short-covering and fast money. There is no fund inflows into Asia and at this point no issuer can come to the market. Will they (issuers) pay up? I doubt it," the fund manager said.

GROWTH WORRIES

Brent crude fell on Wednesday, snapping five days of gains, after OPEC cut its global oil demand forecast and as the Slovak hitch in the euro zone bailout fund plan rattled investors' confidence across asset classes.

Brent was down 0.3 percent at $110.37 a barrel while U.S. crude futures fell 0.8 percent to $85.09.

Industrial metals such as copper also fell on concerns over an economic slowdown and caution before Chinese economic data due later in the week including CPI, PPI and trade balance.

The euro eased, as a recent rally stalled after the Slovak vote, trading down around 0.3 percent on Wednesday at $1.3604.

Market sentiment had improved this week, after a weekend pledge by German and French leaders to come up with a plan to tackle the debt crisis.

Banking and regulatory sources said on Tuesday that Europe's banks would have to achieve a significantly stronger capital position under a quick-fire regulatory health check and may need to raise some 100 billion euros ($137 billion).

Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Union's executive European Commission, said he would propose a bank recapitalization plan on Wednesday, even though there is no agreement yet on where the money will come from.

Rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings downgraded Spanish and Italian banks on Tuesday, underscoring concerns about the impact of the escalating debt crisis on the sector.

(Additional reporting by Lisa Twaronite in Tokyo and Umesh Desai in Hong Kong; Editing by Alex Richardson)



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8:57 PM

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Wall Street holds steady, ready for earnings

Addison Ray

NEW YORK | Tue Oct 11, 2011 8:02pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks took a breather on Tuesday after the best five days for the S&P 500 in more than two years as investors look to earnings for a reason to extend the market's rebound.

Stocks wavered between gains and losses throughout the session. Markets have been reacting to news from the euro zone where officials are trying to contain a debt crisis that threatens large European banks and global financial stability.

The focus now will shift to earnings season, which begins with Alcoa Inc's (AA.N) report after the close of trading. U.S. economic indicators have shown signs of slow growth and investors are waiting to see how this has affected company profits.

"Earnings are always important but even more so here after several quarters of solid earnings across many industry sectors. I think investors are going to want to see that continuing or solidifying itself. Otherwise you could see further selloffs," said Michael Cuggino, president and portfolio manager of Permanent Portfolio Funds in San Francisco.

Materials stocks fell throughout the third quarter on worries about global growth slowing. Alcoa gained 2 percent to $10.30 in regular trading but is down 35 percent since the beginning of the third quarter.

After the market closed, Alcoa said third-quarter profit jumped from a year ago, but earnings and revenue slipped from the second quarter as economic growth slowed from the first half of this year.

A delay in a key vote by Slovakia on expanding the euro zone rescue fund has also kept investors cautious.

With 16 of 17 euro zone states having ratified a pact to boost the size and powers of the European Financial Stability Facility bailout fund, all eyes turned to Slovakia. The country's finance minister said the country was expected to approve the changes this week.

Any more delays in coming up with a plan intended to head off crisis could give the market an excuse to sell. Stocks have reached the top of a recent range, hitting resistance around 1,195 on the S&P 500. Another area of resistance is seen at 1,215 on the S&P 500, said Larry Peruzzi, senior equity trader at Cabrera Capital Markets Inc in Boston.

"The bounce we've had is kind of getting us close to resistance levels ... we're looking to see if it can break through," he said.

Apple (AAPL.O), which gained 3 percent to $400.29, lifted the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 16.88 points, or 0.15 percent, at 11,416.30. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 0.65 point, or 0.05 percent, at 1,195.54. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 16.98 points, or 0.66 percent, at 2,583.03.

After the close, Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum company, dipped slightly $10.03 after it posted results.

In the past week, analysts have lowered their consensus earnings estimates for Alcoa, citing a precipitous drop in metals prices in recent months sparked by global economic concerns.

About 6.90 billion shares were traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq for the day, well below the year's daily average so far of 8.03 billion.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a ratio of roughly 16 to 13, while on the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners by about 3 to 2.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Kenneth Barry)



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8:37 PM

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Slovakia blocks euro rescue fund

Addison Ray

BRATISLAVA/ATHENS | Tue Oct 11, 2011 8:36pm EDT

BRATISLAVA/ATHENS (Reuters) - The parliament of tiny Slovakia stalled the expansion of a bailout fund to rescue the euro zone from its debt crisis on Tuesday, but international lenders said they were likely to grant a loan to Greece next month, buying time for a broader response.

European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet said the debt crisis had become systemic and must be tackled decisively.

Slovakia is the only country in the 17-member currency zone that has yet to approve giving new powers to the European Financial Stability Fund. The expansion was agreed by euro zone leaders in July but must be ratified by each country.

The EFSF is Europe's main weapon to respond to a debt crisis that threatens the European common currency, the region's banks and potentially the global financial system.

The government of Slovak Prime Minister Iveta Radicova fell on Tuesday after a small party in her ruling coalition refused to back the plans. The outgoing government still expects to be able to enact the measure as a caretaker administration by the end of this week with support from an opposition party.

"There is an assumption that the EFSF, one way or the other, will be approved by the end of the week," Finance Minister Ivan Miklos told parliament ahead of the vote.

The failure in the Slovak parliament underlines the difficulty of forging a united response to the worsening debt crisis in a currency zone where all 17 member states must act in concert, and voters are increasingly angry at the growing costs.

Leaders are struggling to find a response that would protect euro zone banks if Greece defaults on its debts.

For now, Athens needs an immediate infusion of cash within weeks just to meet state payrolls. A loan programme has been held up while the European Union and IMF assess whether Greece is doing enough to get its finances in order.

After a weeks-long review of Greece's finances, inspectors from the European Union, IMF and European Central Bank, known as the troika, said an 8 billion euro loan tranche should be paid in early November. It still requires approval by euro zone finance ministers and the IMF.

MORE REFORMS NEEDED

The troika warned that Greece had made only patchy progress in meeting the terms of a bailout agreed in May last year.

"It is essential that the authorities put more emphasis on structural reforms in the public sector and the economy more broadly," the troika said in a statement.

It said additional measures were likely to be needed to meet debt targets in 2013 and 2014, and a privatization drive and structural reforms were falling short.

Germany, the euro zone's biggest economy, said a decision on whether to make the aid payment was still open.

A German Finance Ministry spokesman said the troika's verdict showed "both light and shadows":

"We'll wait and look at the report, analyze it and then decide what will happen with the sixth tranche."

That money would anyway only buy Greece and its euro zone partners a small amount of time.

Germany and France, the leading powers in the 17-nation euro zone, have promised to propose a comprehensive strategy to fight the debt crisis at an EU summit delayed until October 23.

After Athens admitted it would not meet its deficit target this year, there is a growing acceptance that a second Greek bailout agreed in July with private bondholders' participation may need to be renegotiated. A rush is now on to beef up the currency bloc's rescue fund and bolster its banks.

Europe's top financial watchdog warned that the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis threatened global economic stability.

Trichet issued the dramatic warning as chairman of the European Systemic Risk Board, created to avoid a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, amid growing fears that Greece will default on its massive debt.

"The crisis is systemic and must be tackled decisively," Trichet told a European Parliament committee in his final appearance before retiring at the end of the month.

"The high interconnectedness in the EU financial system has led to a rapidly rising risk of significant contagion. It threatens financial stability in the EU as a whole and adversely impacts the real economy in Europe and beyond."

NEW BANK DATA SOUGHT

European banking regulators meanwhile asked banks across the continent to provide updated data on their capital position and sovereign debt exposures to help reassess their need for recapitalization.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the EU executive would present proposals for bank recapitalization and other aspects of the crisis response on Wednesday.

Industry sources said the EU banking regulator had demanded lenders achieve a core capital ratio of at least 7 percent in a new round of internal stress tests, and banks that failed to reach that mark would be asked to bolster their capital.

That would mean some 48 banks would be required to raise a total of 99 billion euros in capital, according to a Reuters Breakingviews calculator using data from previous stress tests. Greek banks would need nearly a third of the total.

For a comprehensive deal to come together, the bloc's leaders must resolve differences over how to recapitalize banks, whether to force a Greek debt restructuring or stick to the existing voluntary deal with private bondholders, and how to use the euro zone's rescue fund.

Europe's inability to draw a line under the crisis has caused growing international alarm, with Japan weighing in on Tuesday after the United States and Britain pressed EU leaders to take decisive action.

Tokyo said it would consult with Washington before it considers buying more euro zone bonds. Finance Minister Jun Azumi urged Europe to restore market confidence in the run-up to a Group of 20 finance leaders' meeting in Paris this week.

Interbank lending rates in Europe continued to rise amid growing concern over European banks' ability to operate, despite the prospect of massive ECB liquidity support.

Some European banks voiced concern at the prospect of being forced by governments to raise additional capital that some say they do not need, possibly by taking public money. One senior banker said that could lead to legal challenges in Germany.

Germany's BDB banking association said Europe should look at recapitalization on a case-by-case basis rather than taking a blanket approach apparently envisaged by Berlin and Paris.

The director of the association, Michael Kemmer, also told ARD television that politicians should stick to a July agreement on private bondholder involvement in a rescue plan for Greece, which called for a 21 percent writedown.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and the chairman of euro group finance ministers, Jean-Claude Juncker, have said that figure may no longer be sufficient and the talks may have to be reopened.

Speaking on Austrian television late on Monday, Juncker refused to rule out a mandatory debt restructuring for Greece, which many market analysts and economists say is bound to happen in the coming months. Many analysts see the rush to recapitalize European banks as a prelude to an enforced write-down of 50 percent or more on their Greek debt holdings.

(Additional reporting by Michael Winfrey and Martin Santa in Bratislava, Paul Carrel, Jonathan Gould, Philipp Halstrick, Edward Taylor and Sakari Suoninen in Frankfurt, and Huw Jones in London; Writing by Paul Taylor, Mike Peacock and Peter Graff)



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3:23 PM

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Slovak parliament rejects euro rescue fund in first vote

Addison Ray

BRATISLAVA | Tue Oct 11, 2011 5:16pm EDT

BRATISLAVA (Reuters) - Slovakia's parliament on Tuesday brought down the government by rejecting a plan to expand the euro zone's EFSF rescue fund, crucial to containing a spreading debt crisis.

However, the outgoing finance minister, Ivan Miklos, said the plan could still be approved by the end of the week.

Prime Minister Iveta Radicova had made the issue into a vote of confidence to try to prevent one of her coalition partners, the liberal Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) party, from opposing the EFSF, but in vain.

The count showed 55 votes in favor and nine against out of a chamber of 150 deputies. The remainder, including the SaS deputies, were absent or did not register a vote, and a majority of all seats was required for the motion to pass.

Radicova is expected to call another vote that is likely to pass comfortably with the support of the main opposition party, Smer, which had demanded a reshuffle or resignation as the price for its support.

"There is an assumption that the EFSF, one way or the other, will be approved by the end of the week," Miklos told parliament ahead of the vote.

Slovakia is the only euro zone member yet to ratify the deal.

The prospect of further delays to the ratification of expanded powers for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) hit markets already under pressure from signs that the crisis is spilling beyond Greece's borders.

Even as Slovakia wrangles over the July agreement, euro zone leaders are scrambling to give the 440 billion euro ($600 billion) safety net even greater clout.

The leftist opposition Smer party has repeatedly said it supports the EFSF plan in principle and is ready to discuss backing it once the government is out of office.

"Smer is curious to see what the ruling coalition parties will propose in return for a fast-track vote and approval of this vital document for Slovakia," Smer's leader, former prime minister Robert Fico, told parliament.

"Smer is ready for this discussion."

A senior Smer official said he believed a new vote would be held "as soon as possible."

RAPID APPROVAL NOW?

Political analyst Grigorij Meseznikov said that, while talks on forming a new cabinet may take weeks, approval of the EFSF plan could come fast.

"I expect that quite quickly after the fall of this cabinet the rescue fund will be approved, within four days, because we are in a newly defined situation and Fico will position himself as the savior of the euro zone and Slovakia," he said.

The SaS had argued that, as one of the poorest members of the single currency club, Slovakia should not pay for debts racked up by richer countries.

"These are things that severely damage Slovakia. Slovakia is not responsible for saving the world," SaS leader Richard Sulik said ahead of the vote.

While Slovakia has been dragging its feet, euro zone leaders are discussing further action.

Germany and France, the leading powers in the bloc, have promised to propose a comprehensive strategy to fight the debt crisis at the EU summit, and there is a growing acceptance that a second Greek bailout agreed in July along with the EFSF expansion may not be sufficient.

A rush is now on to further beef up the rescue fund and shore up banks. European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet said on Tuesday the crisis had become systemic and could threaten global economic stability.

The EFSF agreement is intended to increase its coffers, allow it to buy bonds from the market to support countries under attack, bail out members who need funding and help them prop up failing banks.

Assuming Slovakia's parliament does eventually ratify the EFSF, lawmakers must adjust domestic legislation to implement the deal -- an issue analysts say should not pose a problem once Radicova secures the necessary support.

SLOVAKS FROWN AT BAILOUTS

Radicova said last week she was personally committed to ratifying the agreement by October 14 ahead of a meeting of euro zone leaders -- which has now been pushed back by a week to October 23.

Under the constitution, she will now have to resign but will stay in office until a new administration is in place. President Ivan Gasparovic must find a new prime minister. An early election is possible but is not a given.

Trepidation over the Slovak vote showed in markets on Tuesday. European shares fell after a four-day rally.

Sulik said he understood that markets welcomed governments pouring taxpayers' money into the private sector to prevent institutions failing, but that the approach had to be resisted.

"We simply must not be afraid of this," he said.

"When bourses fall and shares go down, let them. They will be cheaper and more people will buy them. This is called supply and demand."

A poll on Monday indicated that almost half of Slovaks support expanding the euro zone safety net, with 36 percent opposed, and many cringe at the idea that Slovakia could help trigger a new global economic downturn like the one that sent the export-dependent country into recession two years ago.

But with Slovak salaries averaging just 780 euros a month -- just a touch above Greece's 750 euro minimum wage -- many people in the country of 5.4 million also bridle at the thought of footing the bill for overspending in Athens, Dublin or Rome.

Last year, the Slovak ruling parties campaigned on pledges not to support the first bailout of Greece, and Slovakia duly stayed out of that package.

(Additional reporting by Petra Kovacova; Writing by Michael Winfrey and Jan Lopatka; Editing by Kevin Liffey)



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2:08 PM

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Alcoa Q3 profit up, but sees slower growth

Addison Ray

Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.



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9:08 AM

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Regulators release Volcker rule limits on Wall St. bets

Addison Ray

WASHINGTON | Tue Oct 11, 2011 10:47am EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Regulators on Tuesday released for public comment the Volcker rule proposal that will restrict Wall Street's ability to trade for its own profit, setting off what is expected to be a fierce lobbying campaign to weaken the crackdown.

Regulators are giving the public until January 13, 2012, to comment on the proposal. That is longer than expected, and could result in more pressure to change elements of the rule.

The proposal includes more than 350 questions that regulators want interested parties to weigh in on.

The Federal Reserve and other bank regulators acknowledged in the proposal that it will be challenging for the government to identify "proprietary trading" that will be banned under the rule.

It said drawing the line between prohibited and permitted trading "often involves subtle distinctions that are difficult both to describe comprehensively within regulation and to evaluate in practice."

The Volcker rule, named after former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, was tucked into last year's Dodd-Frank financial oversight law, designed to avoid a repeat of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

The Volcker provision aims to prevent banks from recklessly engaging in risky trades by prohibiting them from short-term trading for their own profit in securities, derivatives and other financial products.

It will also prohibit banks from investing in, or sponsoring, hedge funds or private equity funds.

The law contains some exemptions to the ban for trades done to make markets for customers and for those trades used to hedge against certain risks.

Wall Street has feared that badly crafted exemptions will hurt market liquidity and place U.S. financial firms at a disadvantage.

"The proposed rule has been noted as long, the issues are complex, so I think we made the right decision in allowing the full 90 days for comment," said John Walsh, acting director of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which oversees the nation's largest banks.

Walsh spoke at a meeting of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp's board on Tuesday which also agreed to put the proposal out for comment.

The Volcker rule proposal released by bank regulators on Tuesday is largely similar to a draft of the rule leaked last week that received a mixed reaction from industry groups.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, for instance, raised concerns about whether the exemption for trades intended to make markets for customers is too narrow.

A note released on Monday by Bernstein Research said, based on the draft, that the rule "will have a very negative impact on the business models of fixed-income trading for Wall Street brokers." Bernstein estimates the impact could be 25 percent less in revenues.

The rule will have the most impact on large banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase.

Under the Dodd-Frank law, the Volcker rule goes into effect on July 21, 2012, but there is a two-year period for banks to comply with rule after this date.

(Reporting by Dave Clarke and Alexandra Alper; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Tim Dobbyn)



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5:21 AM

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Europe warned of systemic crisis over debt

Addison Ray

FRANKFURT/BRATISLAVA | Tue Oct 11, 2011 6:46am EDT

FRANKFURT/BRATISLAVA (Reuters) - Europe's top financial watchdog warned on Tuesday that the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis has become systemic and threatens global economic stability unless decisive action is taken urgently.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet issued the dramatic warning as chairman of the European Systemic Risk Board, created to avoid a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, amid growing fears that Greece will default on its massive debt.

"The crisis is systemic and must be tackled decisively," Trichet told a European Parliament committee in his final appearance before retiring at the end of the month.

"The high interconnectedness in the EU financial system has led to a rapidly rising risk of significant contagion. It threatens financial stability in the EU as a whole and adversely impacts the real economy in Europe and beyond."

European banking regulators meanwhile asked banks across the continent to provide updated data on their capital position and sovereign debt exposures to help reassess their need for recapitalization.

Germany and France, the leading powers in the 17-nation euro zone, have promised to propose a comprehensive strategy to fight the debt crisis at an EU summit delayed until October 23.

But they must first resolve differences over how to recapitalize banks, whether to force a Greek debt restructuring or stick to a voluntary deal with private bondholders and how to use the euro zone's rescue fund.

Trichet was speaking before international lenders were due to deliver a provisional verdict on Greece's troubled reform and austerity program, while the fate of the euro zone's rescue fund hung in the balance in Slovakia's parliament.

Slovak Prime Minister Iveta Radicova raised the stakes in a battle to win approval for new powers for the European Financial Stability Facility by tying the decision to a vote of confidence in her center-right government.

The small, liberal SaS party, the only member of the five-party ruling coalition which opposes the EFSF, said it would abstain, depriving the government of the votes needed to pass the motion.

EU diplomats expressed confidence that the EFSF agreement approved by the 16 other euro zone countries would eventually be ratified, noting that the Slovak parliament can hold a second vote if ratification is rejected at the first attempt. However, it may bring down the government in Bratislava.

TORTURED PROGRESS

In Athens, inspectors from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund were due to issue a statement after completing an extended review of Greece's tortured progress on its bailout program.

Anti-austerity protesters blocked ministries and state workers went on strike as Greeks awaited the verdict on whether international lenders will hand over a vital tranche of aid needed to stave off imminent bankruptcy.

The so-called troika is due to send a detailed report to euro zone finance ministers and the IMF board next week, and it was not clear whether Tuesday's statement would contain a clear recommendation on releasing the 8 billion euros the government needs to pay salaries and pensions in November. Its next major debt redemption is due in December.

Speaking shortly before the statement was due, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told a conference: "Greece is and will always be a member of the euro zone, a member of the euro."

Europe's inability to draw a line under the crisis has caused growing international alarm, with Japan weighing in on Tuesday after the United States and Britain pressed EU leaders to take decisive action.

Japan said it would consult with the United States before it considers buying more euro zone bonds. Finance Minister Jun Azumi urged Europe to restore market confidence in the run-up to a Group of 20 finance leaders' meeting in Paris this week.

Azumi repeated that Japan stood ready to buy more euro zone bonds so long as Europe comes up with a solid scheme to solve a crisis that has resulted in financial rescues for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

Interbank lending rates in Europe continued to rise amid growing concern over European banks' ability to handle the debt crisis, despite the prospect of massive ECB liquidity support.

Three-month Euribor rates, traditionally the main gauge of unsecured interbank euro lending and a mix of interest rate expectations and banks' appetite for lending, rose to 1.570 percent from 1.567 percent.

Some European banks voiced concern at the prospect of being forced by governments to raise additional capital some say they do not need, possibly taking public money.

Germany's banking association said Europe should look at recapitalization on a case-by-case basis rather than taking a blanket approach apparently envisaged by Berlin and Paris.

The director of the BDB association, Michael Kemmer, also told ARD television that politicians should stick to a July agreement on voluntary private bondholder involvement in a rescue plan for Greece.

That deal envisaged a 21 percent writedown on Greek debt for banks and insurers that participate in a bond swap to reduce and stretch out Greece's debt burden.

However, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and the chairman of euro group finance ministers, Jean-Claude Juncker, have said that figure may no longer be sufficient and the talks may have to be reopened.

Speaking on Austrian television late on Monday, Juncker refused to rule out a mandatory debt restructuring for Greece, which many market analysts and economists say is bound to happen in the coming months.

Many analysts see the rush to recapitalize European banks as a prelude to an enforced write-down of 50 percent or more on their Greek debt holdings.

(Additional reporting by Michael Winfrey in Bratislava, Paul Carrel in Frankfurt, Huw Jones in London, Jonathan Gould and Edward Taylor in Frankfurt and Ingrid Melander in Athens; Writing by Paul Taylor; editing by Janet McBride)



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2:51 AM

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New bankruptcy ripples may emerge in tough economy

Addison Ray

Tue Oct 11, 2011 4:26am EDT

(Reuters) - Three years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers touched off a tidal wave of bankruptcy filings, corporate failures may be about to pick up again, with some big-name companies among those struggling for survival.

Companies in a range of businesses, including hair salons, restaurants, renewable energy, and the paper industry, have tumbled into Chapter 11 in the past few months.

The weak economy, lackluster consumer spending, a shaky junk-bond market and increasingly tight lending practices are also threatening struggling companies in industries as diverse as shipping, tourism, media, energy and real estate.

AMR Corp's American Airlines may need to go to court to restructure its labor contracts, though a spokesman for the airline reiterated on Monday that bankruptcy is not the company's goal or preference.

Kodak confirmed that a law firm known for taking companies through bankruptcy has been advising on strategy as attempts to overcome the loss of its traditional photography business falter. It has denied any intention of filing for bankruptcy.

Some bankruptcy and restructuring experts warn a fresh U.S. recession could trigger a string of failures to rival the one that followed Lehman Brothers, which in 2008 filed the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

"It's getting busier for everyone I know," said Jay Goffman, the co-head of the Global Restructuring Group at law firm Skadden Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom. "I think 2012 will be a busy year and 2013 and 2014 will be extraordinarily busy years in restructuring."

No one is currently predicting a second Lehman-type collapse. Its $639 billion bankruptcy came after a loss of confidence in the investment bank as asset values plummeted, leading to the drying up of credit lines.

In fact, predicting a bankruptcy wave at all is a tricky task, experts say. It could depend on several unknowns: how much money banks and other institutions are willing to lend troubled companies, whether the economy lands in a double-dip recession and what happens in the European debt crisis.

The sovereign debt crisis in Europe could be the most important X factor. Even the experts who say that a bankruptcy crisis is not coming because current low interest rates make it easy for companies to get cash to finance their way out of trouble, say that the euro zone's problems could trigger defaults here.

"It is possible that one or two sovereign debt defaults would increase the pressure we'd feel in the U.S. credit market. Then we might see an environment like we had in 2008," said Peter Fitzsimmons, president for North America for turnaround advisory firm AlixPartners LLP.

MORE FILINGS

Chapter 11 filings are picking up, bankruptcy data show. Ten companies with at least $100 million in assets filed for bankruptcy in September, the most since 17 filed in April, which was the busiest month since 2009, according to Bankruptcydata.com.

For a graphic click here link.reuters.com/nuw34sp:

Recent failures included renewable energy companies Evergreen Solar and Solyndra. The latter collapsed in a politically-charged bankruptcy after taking a $535 million loan from the federal government.

Other recent bankruptcies include glossy magazine paper manufacturer NewPage Corp, which was the largest bankruptcy of the year and the largest non-financial company filing since 2009; Graceway Pharmaceuticals, which makes skin creams; Hussey Copper Corp., which makes the copper bars used in switchboards, and the Dallas Stars of the National Hockey League.

So far this month, five companies with more than $100 million in assets have filed, including the Friendly's ice cream chain - and wireless broadband company Open Range Communications Inc.

It is difficult to predict trends in filings. For example, experts who focused on macroeconomic credit indicators and default projections in 2006 or 2007 wouldn't in many cases have been prepared for the severity of failures that followed.

In 2009, General Motors, Chrysler Group, LyondellBasell Industries and General Growth Properties all filed for bankruptcy, contributing to a record number of filings and topped the list of largest bankruptcies ever.

At the same time, some experts were predicting an even deeper and longer list of corporate collapses. But within a year of bankruptcy filings breaking records, banks and other financial institutions were buying debt and lending, making it easy for companies to finance their way out of trouble.

Two months after Lehman failed, the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed rates to near zero. Once confidence began to return to the debt markets, investors flocked to high-yield bonds sold by ailing companies, allowing them to refinance.

Other failing companies were able to "amend and extend" - or to critics, "amend and pretend" - by striking new borrowing terms with lenders that delayed debt maturities in the hopes the economy would rebound smartly and business would pick up.

Those measures often avoided operational overhauls, creating what some experts called "zombie companies" that cut staff and prices to survive, but were too sick to invest in new projects.

Bankruptcy court allows troubled companies to shed debt and also become more operationally efficient as they renegotiate labor contracts, as airlines have done, or reject pricey store leases, which retailers often do.

But these changes do not always work, especially when companies find little support among suppliers or creditors for their turnaround plans. Bankrupt book chain Borders, for instance, recently closed its doors after failing to find a buyer.

In addition, confidence in the economy and easy access to debt allowed companies to complete restructurings in 2009 and 2010 with business plans and debt loads that were based on an economic pickup that has now faltered. That could create the potential for trouble at companies that have already restructured once.



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