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Fed says easier policy may be needed "before long"

Addison Ray

WASHINGTON | Tue Oct 12, 2010 6:35pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve officials thought in September the struggling recovery might soon need more help and they discussed several ways to provide it, including possible adoption of a price-level target.

The Fed officials who gathered on September 21 focused both on the possibility of buying more longer-term U.S. government debt to drive borrowing costs lower and ways to nudge the public into expecting higher levels of inflation in the future to spur spending, the central bank said on Tuesday.

Policy-makers had a "sense that (more) accommodation may be appropriate before long," minutes of the meeting said.

The U.S. central bank's policy committee released its members' views as international debate intensified over how the Fed's easy monetary policy was driving down the dollar and in turn boosting the currencies of many emerging economies.

To help shift inflation expectations, policy-makers debated providing more detail on what rates of inflation they would prefer and discussed showing a willingness to tolerate even higher inflation temporarily, a policy approach known as price-level targeting.

They also considered the possibility of targeting a path for GDP growth.

The news helped U.S. stocks trim losses, with major indexes ending the day just in positive territory. The dollar was up against the euro for much of the day but lost ground after the minutes were released.

The Fed has kept overnight rates near zero since December 2008 and has bought about $1.7 trillion in bonds to lower other borrowing costs to help the economy recover from the worst recession since the 1930s.

The minutes bolstered expectations the Fed will move to drive down rates further by restarting purchases of Treasury debt as soon as its next meeting on November 2-3. However, they provided no details about the scope of potential purchases.

"The Fed will buy Treasury securities, but in what amount, for how long or until what economic goal is met is unclear," said Paul Ashworth, an economist for Capital Economics in Toronto.

TAILORING THE MESSAGE

The minutes showed the Fed grappling for fresh ways to spur the economy. If the central bank were able to foster higher expectations of future inflation, businesses and consumers may not want to postpone purchases, thereby providing an immediate boost to the economy.

After their September 21 meeting, policymakers said they stood ready to provide more support if needed to keep the recovery on track and raise inflation from undesirably low levels.

Over the past 12 months, the core Consumer Price Index has risen just 0.9 percent. Fed officials would like to see that north of 1.5 percent.

"Many members considered the recent and anticipated progress toward meeting the committee's mandate of maximum employment and price stability to be unsatisfactory," the minutes said.



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