9:55 PM
By Kevin Yao and Langi Chiang
BEIJING | Fri Mar 11, 2011 12:46am EST
BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese inflation topped expectations, with prices rising 4.9 percent in the year to February and looking set to climb faster in coming months, adding to pressure for another dose of monetary tightening.
But data published on Friday also offered tentative signs that the government was making some headway in taming price rises without inflicting undue harm on growth in the world's second-largest economy.
Consumer inflation steadied in February at the same level as in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Although above forecasts for 4.7 percent, the 4.9 percent reading contrasted with dire warnings a few months ago of runaway prices. Core inflation, stripped of volatile food costs, slowed.
Though far too soon for Beijing to declare victory in its battle against inflation, the stabilization suggested that it was more than midway through a sustained tightening campaign launched nearly half a year ago.
People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan struck a guardedly optimistic note.
"If we observe the CPI (consumer price index) figures for December, January and February, although they are high, inflationary expectations are currently relatively stable," he said at a news conference during China's annual session of parliament.
Nevertheless, worries that further increases of Chinese interest rates and reserve requirements were inevitable -- and potentially imminent -- weighed on global markets, which were already reeling because of weak U.S. economic data and unrest in Saudi Arabia. Asian equities added a touch to losses on the day, and the Shanghai stock market had dipped 0.2 percent as of 0515 GMT.
"Clearly, the consumer price index is stabilizing, but the risk is still significantly on the upside," said Wei Yao, economist with Societe Generale in Hong Kong. "It means the central bank will probably stay on the course of tightening," she added.
INFLATION A PRIORITY
Industrial output in the first two months of 2011 rose 14.1 percent year-on-year, picking up from a 13.5 percent pace in December and vaulting past market expectations of a 13.3 percent increase.
Investment was also robust, up 24.9 percent year-on-year in the first two months, topping forecasts for a 23.3 percent rise.
The broad strength reflected Beijing's balancing act in managing the economy this year. While restricting the flow of cash with monetary policy, the government is once again spending lavishly on infrastructure projects and, especially, the construction of public housing to keep growth humming along.
China's top leaders have declared that their priority this year is to control inflation. So far, complaints about rising prices have amounted to little more than grumbles, but serious inflation has sparked social unrest in China in the past.
To meet the official goal of keeping inflation to a 4 percent average this year, the government has raised interest rates three times and banks' reserve requirements five times since October, while also using a series of direct controls to cap price rises.
The next round of tightening may be just around the corner.
